Air Products & Chemicals
ConvictionModerate
Capital-intensive industrial gases: on-site (piped, 15-20yr take-or-pay contracts with pass-through of energy/inflation), merchant liquid/bulk, and packaged gases, plus a now sharply-pruned clean-hydrogen program (NEOM green H2/ammonia in Saudi Arabia is the sole remaining megaproject after the June 2026 Louisiana cancellation). ~50 countries; revenue is annuity-like once plants are on-stream.
Revenue
$12.0BFY2025, ended Sep 30, 2025Rev growth
-1% FY2025 YoY+9% in Q2 FY2026 (volume + FX recoveryGross margin
~30%est.; not separately guidedOp margin
~24% adjustedFY2025 adj. operating income ~$2.9B / sales $12.0B); GAAP operating margin was negative in FY2025 (-$877M op. loss) due to ~$3.7B pre-tax project-exit charges, and FY2026 GAAP will again absorb a fresh up-to-$2.9B pre-tax LCEC charge in Q3Capex intensity
~33% of sales~$4.0B FY2026 capex guide vs ~$12B revenue) — among the highest in large-cap industrials, but now peaking: FY2027+ capex should step down materially after the Louisiana exitMarket cap
~$70BNYSE: APD, $314.19/sh close Jul 5, 2026The read
Where our coverage leans
Coverage leans bullish
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