DeepSeek
ConvictionContext
Open-weight foundation-model lab monetizing via low-cost API inference, enterprise/custom-model licensing, and GPU compute; research-first, historically self-funded by parent hedge fund High-Flyer. Weights released under MIT license since Jan-2025.
Revenue
not disclosed by companythird-party estimates only -- ~$220M annualized run-rate (mid-2025, SQMagazine); some 2026 trackers claim >$1.1B trailing (unverified). Treat as estimate, not filing-grade.Rev growth
not disclosedthird-party estimates put YoY growth in the triple digits off a near-zero 2024 base (unverifiedGross margin
not disclosed. Company's Mar-2025 theoretical disclosure implied ~85% inference gross margindaily theoretical rev $562K vs daily inference cost $87K, a stated 545% cost-profit ratio) -- but DeepSeek itself said actual revenue was 'substantially lower' than the theoretical figure.Op margin
not disclosedCapex intensity
high but not disclosedinherited High-Flyer GPU clusters (Fire-Flyer 2 ~10,000 A100s) plus an estimated ~50,000 Nvidia Hopper-class GPUs / ~$1.6B of infrastructure (third-party est.). Training efficiency is the differentiator -- V3 reportedly trained for ~$5.5M vs ~$100M-class Western runs.Valuation
~$50B-$59Bimplied by first-ever EXTERNAL round, ~Jun 2026: ~$7.4B / ~50B yuan raised at up to ~$59B post-money -- ~6x the ~$10B implied mark from Apr-2026. Tencent ~10B yuan (~$1.5B), CATL ~5B yuan (~$735M), NetEase & JD.com ~3B yuan (~$420M) each, plus China's state National AI fund; IDG/Hillhouse cited. Founder Liang Wenfeng added ~20B yuan (~$2.8B) personal capital. Commercial investors get no voting rights + a 5-year lock-up; the state fund holds voting rights with no lock-up. Not officially confirmed by the company.Valuation trail
First external strategic round (up to ~$59B post-money)5.9× since Apr 2026
2 marks · Apr 2026–Jun 2026
private — no public price
Priced round
DeepSeek ran self-funded by parent High-Flyer with no external rounds until 2026; the ~$59B mark is reported, not company-confirmed. Only two grounded valuation points exist because the 2026 round is the first outside capital.
The read
Where our coverage leans
Coverage leans bearish
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Earnings, margins & COGS, the income-statement breakdown, SWOT, moats & dependencies, the supplier–customer ecosystem graph, top signals & trends, and the valuation range.
- Income statement & margin structure
- SWOT, moats & dependency map
- Supplier–customer ecosystem graph
- Signals, trends & valuation range
Not investment advice — analyst work product for a qualified professional.· intel vintage 2026-07· sign in (free) for the analyst summary; Pro unlocks full intelligence