OpenAI
ConvictionModerate
Hybrid SaaS: consumer subscriptions (ChatGPT Plus/Pro/Team) + usage-based API + enterprise contracts; capped-profit structure under a nonprofit parent (converting to for-profit/PBC)
Revenue
$13.1B FY2025 actual~250% YoY); ARR ~$25B run-rate by Feb 2026 (~$2B/moRev growth
~250% YoYFY2025 vs FY2024 ~$3.7BGross margin
not disclosedcost-of-revenue ~$6.0B on $13.1B implies ~54% gross, but compute accounting opaqueOp margin
deeply negative — ~$20.9B operating loss on $13.1B revenue FY2025Capex intensity
extreme — multi-hundred-billion multi-year compute commitmentsAzure $250B, Oracle $300B, AWS $38B) dwarf revenueValuation
~$852B post-moneyprimary round, Mar 31 2026); ~$400-500B implied at Oct-2025 secondary; IPO range floated $730B-$1TValuation trail
$852B29.4× since Apr 2023
6 marks · Apr 2023–Mar 2026
private — no public price
Priced round Secondary / SPAC mark
Several early marks (2023 $29B, 2024 $80B, 2025 $500B) are employee tender/secondary sales, not priced primary rounds; tagged accordingly. 2019 Microsoft ~$20B is an implied mark, never a formally disclosed post-money — omitted.
Across the boards
The thesis on this name
subject
AI Compute Value-Chain
Full context
The read
Where our coverage leans
Coverage leans bearish
Sign in free to read the bull & bear take — Pro unlocks the full dossier.
Members only
Full financial intelligence for OpenAI
Earnings, margins & COGS, the income-statement breakdown, SWOT, moats & dependencies, the supplier–customer ecosystem graph, top signals & trends, and the valuation range.
- Income statement & margin structure
- SWOT, moats & dependency map
- Supplier–customer ecosystem graph
- Signals, trends & valuation range
Not investment advice — analyst work product for a qualified professional.· intel vintage Jun 2026· sign in (free) for the analyst summary; Pro unlocks full intelligence