XAI·Foundation models / Generative AI (frontier LLM lab)Pre-IPO · Private

xAI (Grok)

ConvictionContext

Vertically integrated AI lab: builds frontier Grok models on owned Colossus compute; monetizes via consumer chatbot subscriptions (SuperGrok ~$30/mo, SuperGrok Heavy ~$300/mo), X Premium bundling, enterprise API, and government contracts. Tightly coupled to Musk's X (social data/distribution), Tesla, and now SpaceX (public parent).

Revenue

xAI standalone: $107M for the quarter ended Sep 30 2025Bloomberg, internal docs); SpaceX's S-1 (May 2026) disclosed ~$365M of combined 2025 Grok + X subscription revenue with only ~1.9M paying SuperGrok subscribers. ~$350M FY2025 xAI standalone and ~$500M annualized run-rate exiting 2025 (estimates). Combined xAI + X: ~$3.83B annualized end-2025 (Sacra estimate; Dealroom cites ~$3.2B FY2025), including X subscription/ad revenue.

Rev growth

Very high off a small base - Sacra cites ~38x YoY on the combined xAI+X basismanagement/press target ~$2B for 2026 (~4x the standalone run-rate). Estimate, not disclosed guidance.

Gross margin

Not disclosed. Structurally pressured by heavy inference compute cost per query and subsidized consumer pricing.

Op margin

Deeply negative. Net loss ~$1.46Bin Q3 2025 (Bloomberg) on $107M revenue.

Capex intensity

Extreme. ~$18B cumulative GPU silicon spend at Colossus/Memphis~2GW site power; ~555k GPUs (Jan-Feb 2026) scaling toward a 1M-GPU roadmap.

Valuation

~$250B ascribed to xAIin the Feb 2 2026 all-stock SpaceX merger (converting 1 xAI share into 0.1433 SpaceX shares; $75.46 xAI / $526.59 SpaceX; combined ~$1.25T). No standalone market cap - xAI is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX, which IPO'd June 12 2026 on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX) at $135/share for a ~$1.75T valuation; indirect public exposure to xAI is via SPCX. Prior xAI marks: ~$230B (Series E, Jan 2026), ~$200B (Sep 2025).

Valuation trail

SpaceX-xAI all-stock merger mark (combined ~$1.25T)10.4× since May 2024

6 marks · May 2024–Feb 2026

private — no public price

Priced round

xAI never listed independently. After the Feb 2026 all-stock merger it became a wholly-owned SpaceX subsidiary; SpaceX itself IPO'd June 12 2026 (Nasdaq: SPCX, ~$1.75T), giving only indirect public exposure to xAI. The $200B Sep-2025 point is a soft press-reported mark; the 2024 rounds and the Jan-2026 Series E / Feb-2026 merger marks are the firm anchors.

The read

Where our coverage leans

Coverage leans bullish

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Full financial intelligence for xAI (Grok)

Earnings, margins & COGS, the income-statement breakdown, SWOT, moats & dependencies, the supplier–customer ecosystem graph, top signals & trends, and the valuation range.

Income statement & margin structure
SWOT, moats & dependency map
Supplier–customer ecosystem graph
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Not investment advice — analyst work product for a qualified professional.· intel vintage 2026-07· sign in (free) for the analyst summary; Pro unlocks full intelligence