Aehr Test Systems
Capital-equipment sales (FOX wafer-level and Sonoma package-level burn-in systems) plus recurring, higher-margin consumables (WaferPak/DiePak contactors); lumpy, order-driven, high customer concentration
- 2026-08-04This market capitalisation previously read ~$2.27B (as of 2026-07-06). Restated to ~$2.99B on this refresh, roughly 32% higher.
- 2026-08-04This share price previously read ~$72.33 (as of 2026-07-06). Restated to $91.71 on this refresh, roughly 27% higher.
Sources — 12 figures with citations
- FY2026 net revenuefiled2026-05-29$50.001M (year ended 2026-05-29) vs $58.968M FY2025sec.gov — 10-K filed 2026-07-27; figures cross-checked against SEC XBRL companyfacts (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY frame CY2025). YoY = 50.001/58.968 - 1 = -15.2%.
- FY2026 gross profit and gross marginderived2026-05-29Gross profit $17.651M; GAAP gross margin 35.3%data.sec.gov — GrossProfit $17.651M (filed) / revenue $50.001M (filed) = 35.30%. Management's non-GAAP FY2026 gross margin was 38.5% per the earnings call.
- FY2026 operating loss and operating marginderived2026-05-29-$14.149M; -28.3% of revenuedata.sec.gov — OperatingIncomeLoss -$14.149M (filed, 10-K FY) / revenue $50.001M = -28.30%.
- FY2026 GAAP net loss and pre-tax lossfiled2026-05-29Net loss -$7.126M (-$0.23 diluted); pre-tax loss -$11.736M; income-tax benefit $4.610Mdata.sec.gov — NetIncomeLoss, IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxes..., IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit from the FY2026 10-K XBRL.
- Q4 FY2026 revenue, gross profit, operating loss, net income (derived)derived2026-05-29Revenue $18.835M; gross profit $8.019M (42.6% GM); operating loss -$1.206M; pre-tax loss -$0.455M; net income +$1.391Mdata.sec.gov — Q4 = FY2026 minus nine months to 2026-02-27. Revenue 50.001-31.166=18.835. Gross profit 17.651-9.632=8.019 -> 8.019/18.835=42.58%. Operating 14.149-12.943 = -1.206. Pre-tax: FY -11.736 less 9M -11.281 = -0.455. Tax benefit 4.610-2.764=1.846. Net -0.455+1.846=+1.391, which reconciles to the $1.4M reported in the press release.
- Cash, debt and free cash flowderived2026-05-29Cash and equivalents $116.358M; interest paid $0 (no interest-bearing debt); FY2026 operating cash flow -$3.310M; capex $2.066M; FCF -$5.376Mdata.sec.gov — Cash, NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment and InterestPaidNet are filed values. FCF = -3.310 - 2.066 = -5.376; FCF margin = -5.376/50.001 = -10.75%. Capex intensity = 2.066/50.001 = 4.13%.
- Q4 FY2026 bookings, backlog and effective backlogfiled2026-07-14Bookings $60.7M (record); backlog $80.6M at 2026-05-29; effective backlog ~$100.6Maehr.com — Company earnings release dated 2026-07-14. Effective backlog includes ~$20M of bookings taken after the 2026-05-29 year-end.
- FY2027 guidancefiled2026-07-14Revenue $130-150M (+160% to +200% YoY); non-GAAP net income 18-22% of revenueaehr.com — Guidance issued with the Q4/FY2026 release. Implied forward multiple at the $140M midpoint: $2.99B / $140M = ~21x.
- Revenue mix and customer concentrationfiled2026-07-14AI processors + silicon photonics >80% of Q4 revenue (56% prior year); silicon carbide <5% (>95% two years earlier); 3 customers each >10% of Q4 revenuefool.com — Management statements on the Q4 FY2026 earnings call (2026-07-14). Two of the three >10% customers are AI, one is optical transceivers.
- Non-GAAP gross margin and capacityfiled2026-07-14Q4 non-GAAP gross margin ~45% (+~10pts YoY); FY2026 38.5%; ~20 Sonoma systems/month capacity at SE Asia contract manufacturersfool.com — Q4 FY2026 earnings call. Margin improvement attributed to product mix and manufacturing utilisation.
- Price and market capmarket2026-08-03$91.71 close on 2026-08-03; market cap ~$2.99Bstockanalysis.com — Official Nasdaq close for 2026-08-03 (not an intraday print). Market cap cross-checked: 32,620,450 shares (10-K cover, outstanding as of 2026-07-20) x $91.71 = $2.991B. Trailing P/S = 2.991/0.050 = ~59.8x.
- Equity issuance and dilutionderived2026-07-20~$100M raised via ATM to reach $116.5M cash; shares out 30,006,590 (2025-10-01) -> 32,620,450 (2026-07-20)data.sec.gov — ProceedsFromIssuanceOfCommonStock XBRL tags show $10.5M (Feb 2026), $19.5M (Mar 2026) and $60.0M (1-7 Apr 2026); the earnings call cited ~$100M total from the ATM. Dilution = 32,620,450/30,006,590 - 1 = +8.7% over nine months.
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
Revenue is small, lumpy and shrinking off a FY2024 peak as the core silicon-carbide (EV power) wafer-level burn-in cycle rolled over; FY2026 is a trough year (guided high side of $45-50M) even as bookings inflected sharply higher on new AI-processor and hyperscaler burn-in demand. Q3 FY2026 bookings hit $37.2M (book-to-bill >3.5x) with reported backlog $38.7M at quarter-end and a record $50.9M effective backlog including early-Q4 bookings, framing a FY2027 re-acceleration thesis. The stock (~50x TTM sales) is priced almost entirely on that forward AI narrative, not trailing results.
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~0¢ is cost of goods and ~0¢ operating expense, leaving ~100¢ of operating profit.
Revenue trend
Margins
down from 42.7% YoY on lower volume + less favorable mix
FY2025 net loss ~$3.9M; Q2 FY2026 net loss $3.2M / $(0.11)
guiding to return to non-GAAP profitability in Q4 FY2026
COGS structure
System hardware, contactor/WaferPak materials, and assembly/test labor; gross margin is mix-sensitive - WaferPak consumables and higher system utilization lift margin, low-volume quarters and new-product ramp compress it (Q3 FY2026 to 36.5%).
Capex
Low and not separately emphasized; Aehr assembles rather than fabricates, so capital intensity is modest and growth is funded more by working capital and equity (ATM) than plant.
Latest earnings
Clear beat and an inflection. Revenue swung to +33.6% YoY growth after three declining quarters, GAAP net income turned positive ($1.4M vs -$2.9M in Q4 FY2025), and bookings set a record at $60.7M (+~505% YoY). Quality caveat: the Q4 GAAP profit came below the operating line - derived Q4 pre-tax loss was ~$0.5M and a ~$1.8M income-tax benefit produced the reported net income. Non-GAAP gross margin improved 10pts YoY to ~45% on AI-processor mix and better factory utilisation.
FY2027 (ending May 2027) revenue $130-150M, i.e. +160% to +200% YoY, with non-GAAP net income of 18-22% of revenue. Management framed the guide as backlog-supported ($80.6M year-end backlog, ~$100.6M effective backlog including ~$20M of early-FY2027 orders) and as excluding any memory/flash burn-in upside.
- Q4 bookings
- $60.7M (record, ~+505% YoY)
- Backlog at 2026-05-29
- $80.6M (record)
- Effective backlog
- ~$100.6M (incl. ~$20M booked after 2026-05-29)
- AI processors + silicon photonics
- >80% of Q4 revenue (vs 56% a year earlier)
- Silicon carbide concentration
- <5% of revenue (vs >95% two years earlier)
- Customers >10% of Q4 revenue
- 3 (two AI, one optical transceiver)
- Non-GAAP gross margin
- ~45% Q4 / 38.5% FY2026
- Cash and equivalents
- $116.358M at 2026-05-29
- FY2026 GAAP net loss
- -$7.126M / -$0.23 diluted
- Sonoma build capacity
- ~20 systems/month at SE Asia contract manufacturers
Growth drivers
- AI accelerator/processor wafer-level burn-in — now >35% of revenue; $14M follow-on FOX-XP + WaferPak production order from lead AI-accelerator customer
- Sonoma package-level burn-in win with a lead hyperscaler for next-gen high-power AI processors, with substantial expansion forecast from H2 CY2026 into 2027
- Diversification beyond silicon carbide into GaN power, silicon photonics, flash/data-storage, and packaged-part burn-in
- Sole provider positioning across both wafer-level and package-level burn-in at scale
- Eventual recovery of the silicon-carbide/EV power cycle (currently depressed)
Reported financials — SEC EDGAR
Audited GAAP figures pulled from SEC filings · latest filing 2026-07-27. The audited primary-source spine — not financial advice.
Revenue — annual (GAAP)
Margins & balance sheet — FY’26
Bull & bear
FY2026 was the trough and the pivot completed in the same year: silicon-carbide dependence collapsed from >95% to <5% of revenue while AI-processor and silicon-photonics burn-in became >80% of Q4, and a record $60.7M of Q4 bookings plus ~$100.6M effective backlog underwrite guidance for revenue to roughly triple in FY2027 at 18-22% non-GAAP net margins - now funded by $116M of cash and zero debt.
- Revenue inflected in Q4 FY2026 to +33.6% YoY ($18.8M) and GAAP profitability returned, ending the four-quarter decline
- FY2027 guidance of $130-150M (+160-200%) is anchored on $80.6M of year-end backlog and ~$100.6M effective backlog, not on a pipeline forecast, and explicitly excludes potential memory/flash burn-in revenue
- Customer-mix risk that defined the old story is materially reduced: silicon carbide is now <5% of revenue versus >95% two years ago, with three separate >10% customers across AI and optical
- Mix shift is showing up in margin - Q4 non-GAAP gross margin ~45%, up ~10pts YoY - so incremental revenue should convert at high rates against a largely fixed cost base
- Balance sheet is fully funded for the ramp: $116.4M cash, no interest-bearing debt, and only $2.1M of FY2026 capex because Sonoma volume is outsourced (~20 systems/month capacity)
A ~$2.99B market cap on $50.0M of FY2026 revenue is ~60x trailing sales and ~21x the midpoint of a guide that requires revenue to nearly triple in twelve months - and FY2026 itself was a GAAP loss year (-$7.1M) whose only profitable quarter was profitable because of a tax benefit, with the whole thesis resting on three unnamed >10% customers.
- Valuation leaves no margin for error: ~60x FY2026 sales trailing, ~21x guided FY2027 revenue at the midpoint, against a company that shrank 15.2% in the year just reported
- Q4 GAAP net income of $1.4M sits on a derived pre-tax loss of ~$0.5M - the profit came from a ~$1.8M tax benefit, so the operating turn is one quarter younger than the headline implies
- Concentration was relocated, not removed: three customers each exceeded 10% of Q4 revenue and AI plus photonics is >80% of the mix, so a single AI customer's roadmap change or in-sourcing decision resets the FY2027 guide
- The +160-200% guide is a step-function, not a trend - it assumes current customer forecasts materialise and that ~20 systems/month of outsourced Sonoma capacity ramps cleanly; historical results have been lumpy and order-timing-driven
- Shareholders paid for the balance sheet: ~$100M of ATM equity was issued to reach $116M cash, and share count rose from ~30.0M (Oct 2025) to ~32.6M (Jul 2026), roughly 8.7% dilution in nine months
- Larger test incumbents (Advantest, Teradyne, Cohu, FormFactor) are targeting the same AI burn-in demand with broader platforms and deeper customer relationships
What it is worth
Trailing multiples + narrative-driven forward re-rating (negative earnings/FCF preclude P/E or DCF anchoring)
AI orders push out or concentrate further, revenue stays sub-$60M and loss-making, and the ~50x sales multiple compresses sharply toward peers (COHU/TER trade at low-single-digit to ~10x sales), implying material downside on any execution miss.
FY2026 troughs at ~$45-50M with a return to non-GAAP profitability in Q4 and backlog-driven FY2027 re-acceleration; a still-rich but moderating sales multiple as growth reappears - the stock stays sentiment- and bookings-sensitive.
If AI-accelerator + hyperscaler Sonoma demand compounds and revenue scales back toward/above the prior ~$66M peak and beyond into FY2027-28 at recovering 45%+ gross margins with operating leverage, a high-teens/20s% grower could support a premium double-digit sales multiple - but needs multi-year delivery to grow into ~$2.27B.
~$2.27B market cap on ~$45M TTM revenue = ~50x TTM sales with GAAP losses and negative-to-breakeven FCF - an extreme multiple justified only by a steep FY2027+ AI burn-in ramp (record $50.9M effective backlog, >3.5x book-to-bill). Value is almost entirely in forward optionality, not trailing fundamentals; concentration and execution risk are high. Not financial advice.
SWOT
Strengths
- Differentiated wafer-level burn-in (FOX) IP and full-wafer WaferPak contactors - few direct analogs at scale
- Only vendor positioning both wafer-level and package-level (Sonoma) burn-in
- Net-cash balance sheet, no meaningful debt
- Recurring consumable (WaferPak/DiePak) attach improves margin and stickiness once a system is designed in
- Early, credible foothold in AI-processor and hyperscaler burn-in - the highest-growth demand pool in semis
Weaknesses
- Extreme customer concentration — historically Onsemi >80% of revenue; still reliant on a handful of 'lead' customers
- Tiny absolute scale ($45-59M revenue) and highly lumpy, order-timing-driven results
- Revenue shrinking and currently unprofitable (GAAP); gross margin compressed to mid-30s%
- Dependence on customers' capex cycles (EV/SiC downturn drove the FY2025-26 decline)
- Dilution risk - funding via at-the-market equity issuance
Opportunities
- AI/data-center burn-in TAM expansion as accelerator and HBM-heavy ASICs require known-good-die and package-level stress testing
- Silicon photonics, GaN power, and flash/storage burn-in adjacencies
- Silicon-carbide/EV power recovery reigniting the legacy core
- Sonoma package-level ramp into 2027 with hyperscaler standardization
- Design-win-driven consumables annuity compounding as installed base grows
Threats
- Larger, better-capitalized test incumbents (Advantest, Teradyne, Cohu, FormFactor, Onto/KLA) targeting AI burn-in
- Customer in-sourcing or single-customer loss materially resets revenue
- Valuation compression - ~50x TTM sales leaves little room for execution slips
- Semiconductor-capex cyclicality and macro/EV-demand softness
- Concentration in a few unnamed AI 'lead' customers whose roadmap changes could stall the thesis
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
Differentiated wafer-level burn-in IP (FOX) + full-wafer WaferPak contactors Genuinely differentiated and hard to replicate quickly, but not patent-fortress-wide; large incumbents can invest to contest AI burn-in.
Once a FOX/Sonoma platform is qualified in a customer flow, WaferPak/DiePak consumables recur and displacement is costly - but concentration limits breadth.
Self-described 'only provider of both at scale'; a positioning edge more than a durable structural moat.
Dependencies
Customer concentration A few 'lead' customers drive the growth thesis; historically Onsemi was >80% of revenue.
End-market demand Legacy core; the SiC/EV downturn drove the FY2025-26 revenue decline.
Orders track customers' fab/OSAT capex timing; inherently lumpy.
Uses at-the-market issuance to fund growth/cash needs - dilutive at scale.
Asset-light assembly relies on outsourced components and contactor materials.
Advantages
- First-mover credibility in AI-processor wafer-level burn-in
- Only vendor pairing wafer-level (FOX) and package-level (Sonoma) burn-in
- Recurring, higher-margin WaferPak/DiePak consumable stream tied to installed base
- Net-cash, asset-light balance sheet with operating leverage when volume returns
- Sharp bookings/backlog inflection providing forward visibility into FY2027
Weaknesses
- Severe customer and end-market concentration
- Small, shrinking, unprofitable trailing revenue base
- Gross margin compressed to mid-30s%; ATM dilution
- Extreme valuation leaves no margin for execution error
- Exposed to capex cyclicality and a still-unproven AI ramp
Bottlenecks
- Customer qualification/benchmark cycles are long and gate revenue recognition timing
- Revenue lumpiness from large-system order timing makes quarters hard to forecast
- Scaling production and WaferPak contactor throughput for AI-accelerator wafer sizes/volumes
- Gross-margin sensitivity to volume and product mix in low-utilization quarters
- Reliance on a small engineering/commercial base to win against far larger incumbents
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Strongest leading indicator that revenue troughs and re-accelerates in FY2027.
Evidence the AI/data-center burn-in thesis is converting to real orders.
Trailing fundamentals are weak; thesis is forward-loaded.
Rich re-rating raises the bar; sentiment-driven, momentum-fragile.
Shores up cash but dilutes; signals capital needs during ramp.
Concentration diversifying, though onto new (still concentrated) AI customers.
Trends
Core of the current thesis; largest structural tailwind.
Higher-value die make burn-in economically justified, expanding TAM.
Depressed the legacy core through FY2025-26.
Non-AI segments remain cyclical and uneven.
Competitive intensity rising as AI test dollars grow.
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Contract manufacturers / component & contactor-material suppliers Asset-light assembly model relies on outsourced components and WaferPak/DiePak materials; specific vendors not disclosed.
Historical dominant customer (>80% of revenue) via silicon-carbide EV power wafer-level burn-in.
Lead AI-accelerator processor customer (unnamed) Placed $14M FOX-XP + WaferPak follow-on production order; AI processor burn-in now >35% of revenue.
Sonoma package-level burn-in production win for next-gen high-power AI processors, ramping from H2 CY2026 into 2027.
silicon-photonics and flash/data-storage device makers Emerging diversification end-markets.
Broader back-end test/handling/contactor vendor with diversified customers; most-cited direct peer.
Leading ATE vendor expanding in system-level and AI/HBM test; far larger scale and R&D.
Dominant memory/SoC ATE and burn-in incumbent (esp. HBM/AI); the heaviest-resourced potential contender.
Probe cards and wafer-level test/measurement - adjacent to WaferPak contactor franchise.
Process control/inspection and advanced-packaging metrology; adjacent AI-packaging exposure.
Inspection/metrology giant; adjacent rather than direct burn-in competitor.
Italian probe-card leader (Borsa Italiana / Euronext Milan); competes in wafer-level contact/test adjacency.