CIFR·Bitcoin mining transitioning to HPC/AI colocation & hosting (data-center landlord)

Cipher Mining

ConvictionModerate

Power-site arbitrage: Cipher's scarce asset is energized, grid-connected, interconnect-queued MW in Texas (Odessa, Barber Lake, Black Pearl), NOT its ASICs. It repurposes those sites from volatile hash-price-linked BTC mining (~$3-5M/MW/yr) into long-dated (10-15yr), contracted, credit-backstopped HPC leases (~$1.5-2M/MW/yr) at higher, more stable margins and richer multiples. Unlike a pure shell-lessor it retains full project ownership and self-develops the campuses, so it carries build/financing/execution risk to capture more of the value chain. A capital-intensive real-asset landlord, not a software business.

Revenue

$34.8MQ1 FY26, down from ~$59.7M Q4 FY25 on planned mining wind-down); pre-HPC — first HPC lease revenue expected later in 2026 [fact]

Rev growth

-42% QoQQ1 FY26 vs Q4 FY25) as Black Pearl mining decommissioned; revenue is in a trough before contracted HPC leases begin recognizing in H2 2026 [fact]

Gross margin

n/m at this transition point — legacy BTC-mining revenue is collapsing and HPC lease revenue has not yet begunthe relevant forward metric is contracted lease NOI (~$787M avg annualized across the three signed leases, company-disclosed) [company-disclosed]

Op margin

GAAP net loss -$114.3Min Q1 FY26 (-$0.28/sh) — driven by lower mining revenue, a PPA fair-value markdown, and higher interest expense from new debt; deeply negative on tiny current revenue [fact]

Capex intensity

Very high — multi-hundred-MW HPC build-out against ~$35M/qtr revenuethe ~$1B net-debt position and $2B bond fund Black Pearl + Barber Lake construction, with mining capex halted [fact]

Market cap

~$9.9B equity caplate-Jun 2026); net debt ~$0.96B (total debt ~$5.2B less ~$4.2B cash/restricted, Q1 FY26) => enterprise value ~$10.9B [fact]

Across the boards

The thesis on this name

position

State of the AI Cloud

Full context

Primary source

Reported financials — SEC EDGAR

Audited GAAP figures pulled from SEC filings · latest filing 2026-02-24. The audited primary-source spine — not financial advice.

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Revenue — annual (GAAP)

FY’22

$3M

FY’23

$127M+4077%

FY’24

$151M+19%

FY’25

$224M+48%

Margins & balance sheet — FY’25

Operating margin-188.2%

Net margin-367.2%

Net debt$4.0B

The read

Where our coverage leans

Coverage leans bearish

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Full financial intelligence for Cipher Mining

Earnings, margins & COGS, the income-statement breakdown, SWOT, moats & dependencies, the supplier–customer ecosystem graph, top signals & trends, and the valuation range.

Income statement & margin structure
SWOT, moats & dependency map
Supplier–customer ecosystem graph
Signals, trends & valuation range

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