Comet Holding
Designs and manufactures RF power generators, matchboxes and vacuum capacitors that semiconductor-equipment OEMs embed into etch/deposition tools (designed-in, per-tool content), plus industrial X-ray modules and computed-tomography systems (Yxlon brand) and e-beam sterilization; mix of OEM component supply, capital systems, and aftermarket/service.
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
FY2025 was a low-margin trough year: sales edged up 2.6% (+7.3% in constant currency) to CHF 457.0M but EBITDA fell ~20% to CHF 46.3M (10.1% margin, from 13.0%) and net income dropped ~63% to CHF 12.2M (EPS CHF 1.57, from CHF 4.22) as gross margin compressed 480bps, one-off Penang/efficiency costs hit, and the tax rate rose sharply. The dividend was cut two-thirds to CHF 0.50 (31.9% of net income). The story since is forward-looking: Q1-2026 order intake surged to CHF 144.9M (+22.3% YoY, book-to-bill ~1.4) on the semiconductor recovery, and management guides FY2026 net sales (CHF) and adjusted EBITDA margin to 'significantly exceed' 2025 — the basis for the stock's subsequent re-rating toward its 52-week high.
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~62¢ is cost of goods and ~33¢ operating expense, leaving ~5¢ of operating profit (~3¢ net).
Revenue trend
Margins
down from 42.8% FY2024 (mix + FX)
down from 13.0%; ~3pp of one-offs (Penang + efficiency program)
down from ~8.1% FY2024
down from 20.4% — still the group's most profitable segment
down from 7.4%; net income CHF 12.2M vs CHF 32.8M FY2024
COGS structure
COGS is dominated by precision electromechanical and vacuum components — vacuum capacitors (largely vertically integrated/in-house, a differentiator), RF generators/match networks, X-ray tubes and detectors. FY2025 gross margin fell to 38% on unfavorable product/regional/customer mix (fast-growing but lower-margin PCT OEM volume) and a strong CHF against USD-denominated semiconductor revenue.
Capex
Above trend: the Penang, Malaysia plant is the marquee investment, adding capacity and geographic/customer localization ahead of the WFE ramp. Start-up costs weighed ~3pp on FY2025 EBITDA margin and depressed FCF to CHF 8.5M (from CHF 41.4M).
Latest earnings
Sales soft (-4.5% reported, +5.8% cc vs Q1/25 CHF 111.2M) but orders well ahead — the market read the order surge and book-to-bill ~1.4 bullishly
FY2026: net sales (CHF) and adjusted EBITDA margin to 'significantly exceed' FY2025 (base: CHF 457.0M sales, 10.1% EBITDA). Adjusted margin strips ~3pp of Penang/efficiency one-offs. Backs an accelerating H2 as the order book converts.
- Q1-2026 order intake
- CHF 144.9M (+22.3% YoY vs CHF 118.5M; +11.6% QoQ vs CHF 129.9M)
- Q1-2026 book-to-bill
- ~1.4
- FY2025 net sales
- CHF 457.0M (+2.6% reported, +7.3% cc)
- FY2025 EBITDA / margin
- CHF 46.3M / 10.1%
- FY2025 net income / EPS
- CHF 12.2M / EPS CHF 1.57 (2024: CHF 32.8M / CHF 4.22)
- FY2025 dividend
- CHF 0.50 proposed (2024: CHF 1.50; 31.9% of net income)
- PCT FY2025 net sales
- CHF 257.1M (+3.9%), ~56% of group
Growth drivers
- Wafer-fab-equipment (WFE) capex upcycle — sources cite ~15-25% YoY WFE growth expected in 2026
- PCT content gains — RF power delivery for plasma etch/deposition, driven by more etch/deposition steps at advanced nodes, 3D NAND layer counts, and HBM/advanced-packaging
- AI/HPC-led demand for leading-edge logic and high-bandwidth memory pulling equipment investment
- Vertical integration in vacuum capacitors (scarce, high-barrier component) supporting design-ins
- Penang capacity + localization enabling share gains with Asian and US OEMs
- Industrial X-ray/CT (Yxlon) and e-beam recovery as a diversifying, less-cyclical layer
Bull & bear
A leveraged, high-quality way to play the 2026-2027 WFE upcycle: Comet's PCT RF-power franchise and in-house vacuum capacitors give it real content per tool, the order book is already inflecting (book-to-bill ~1.4), and a return to ~20% PCT margins on higher volume would drive outsized EPS recovery off a depressed FY2025 base.
- Q1-2026 order intake +22.3% YoY with book-to-bill ~1.4 signals the cycle turning before it shows in reported sales
- PCT is the crown jewel — largest, highest-margin division; margin fell to 15.7% in the trough, leaving clear upside as volume returns
- Vacuum-capacitor vertical integration is a genuine, scarce moat that protects design-ins against second-sourcing
- FY2025 earnings (EPS CHF 1.57, elevated tax rate, one-off Penang costs) are a trough — normalized earnings power is materially higher
- AI/HBM/advanced-packaging structurally lifts etch/deposition steps and thus RF-power content per wafer
- Penang adds capacity and localization to capture Asian-OEM demand into the ramp; balance sheet (net cash CHF 5.3M) funds it without stress
You're paying a very rich multiple (FY2025 trailing P/E ~250 on trough EPS of CHF 1.57; EV/sales ~6.7x) for a small, deeply cyclical component supplier that just cut its dividend two-thirds, whose margins compressed hard, and whose fortunes hinge on a WFE upcycle and Chinese demand that export controls and macro can derail.
- Valuation prices in a robust recovery — any WFE air-pocket or push-out could re-rate the stock sharply lower (the shares sold off on the FY2025 print before recovering)
- FY2025 fundamentals were weak: gross margin 38%, EBITDA 10.1%, net income -63% to CHF 12.2M, FCF down to CHF 8.5M, dividend cut to CHF 0.50
- Two much larger rivals — Advanced Energy (AEIS) and MKS Instruments (MKSI) — compete directly in RF power delivery with scale advantages
- Customer concentration in a few WFE OEMs; those OEMs can push out orders or in-source RF subsystems
- Export-control exposure: Chinese WFE demand is both a driver and a policy-risk that can be curtailed
- Strong CHF keeps turning constant-currency growth into weaker reported growth
- Penang ramp is an execution risk — cost overruns/delays keep margins suppressed longer than guided
What it is worth
Cyclical earnings-normalization + relative multiples vs. AEIS/MKSI, cross-checked on EV/sales. FY2025 is a trough (trailing P/E ~250 on EPS CHF 1.57), so a trailing multiple is uninformative — the market is capitalizing 2026-2027 recovery earnings.
WFE recovery slips or China demand is curtailed by export controls; margins stay suppressed by FX and Penang costs, the dividend stays cut, and the premium multiple compresses toward peers — meaningful downside from current levels near the CHF 413 52-week high.
A real but uneven upcycle; FY2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA margin 'significantly exceed' 2025 as guided, EPS recovers meaningfully but the rich multiple caps upside — returns track earnings delivery rather than further re-rating.
WFE up ~15-25% in 2026 and again in 2027, PCT margins back to ~20%+, Penang one-offs roll off, EPS recovers multiples above the CHF 1.57 trough — supporting the re-rated price and further upside on operating leverage.
At ~CHF 3.05B market cap (~$3.8B) on CHF 457.0M (~$570M) FY2025 sales, COTN trades at a rich ~6.7x EV/sales and a very high trailing P/E (~250) — a premium, forward-looking multiple that already discounts a WFE upcycle and PCT margins recovering toward ~20%+. The thesis rests on order-book conversion (book-to-bill ~1.4) and clean Penang execution. Not financial advice.
SWOT
Strengths
- In-house vacuum-capacitor manufacturing — a high-barrier, hard-to-second-source RF component that anchors design-ins
- PCT is designed into etch/deposition tools at top WFE OEMs, creating per-tool content and qualification lock-in
- Diversification beyond semis into industrial X-ray/CT (Yxlon) and e-beam sterilization dampens pure-cycle exposure
- Strong Q1-2026 order book (book-to-bill ~1.4) gives visibility into the 2026 ramp
- Conservative balance sheet: net cash CHF 5.3M, 61.6% equity ratio
Weaknesses
- Deeply cyclical, small-cap (~$3.8B) supplier at the mercy of a handful of large OEM customers' capex timing
- FY2025 margin compression (gross 38%, EBITDA 10.1%) and a ~63% net-income drop; PCT EBITDA margin slid to 15.7%
- Strong CHF structurally drags USD-denominated semiconductor revenue on reporting (+7.3% cc became +2.6% reported)
- Penang start-up and efficiency-program costs still weighing on near-term profitability and FCF (CHF 8.5M)
Opportunities
- 2026-2027 WFE upcycle (+15-25% expected in 2026) with operating leverage back toward ~20%+ PCT margins
- AI/HBM/advanced-packaging content growth per tool
- Penang capacity enabling Asian-OEM share gains and supply-chain localization
- Aftermarket/service attach on a growing installed base
Threats
- Semiconductor capex is volatile — a stalled or shallow upcycle deflates the re-rated multiple
- US/China export controls can cut off Chinese WFE demand and reshape OEM supply chains
- Direct competition from far larger AEIS and MKSI in RF power delivery
- Customer concentration + potential in-sourcing of RF subsystems by OEMs
- FX and tariff/trade friction on a globally distributed cost and revenue base
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
Scarce, high-barrier RF component few can manufacture at quality/scale; underpins design-ins and gross margin.
Tool qualification creates switching costs and multi-year content per platform, but OEMs hold negotiating power and could dual-source.
Reputation and service attach in non-destructive testing; diversifies away from the semiconductor cycle.
X-ray tubes, e-beam, RF generators require specialized engineering, but faces scaled competitors.
Dependencies
PCT (~56% of sales) tracks semiconductor equipment spending; timing is volatile and exogenous.
Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron) Customer concentration A few large OEMs drive PCT volume; order push-outs or in-sourcing hit disproportionately.
Geopolitical/regulatory Chinese WFE investment is a swing factor; controls can curtail it and reshape supply chains.
USD-denominated semi revenue vs. CHF cost/reporting base; strong franc suppresses reported growth and margin.
Capacity/localization bet; overruns or delays prolong the margin and FCF drag.
Advantages
- Vertical integration in vacuum capacitors (rare capability)
- Entrenched RF-power content at leading WFE OEMs
- Diversified revenue across semi RF power, industrial X-ray/CT, and e-beam
- Order momentum (book-to-bill ~1.4) providing 2026 visibility
- High operating leverage to a volume recovery
Weaknesses
- Deep cyclicality and small-cap scale
- FY2025 margin and earnings compression; dividend cut two-thirds
- Customer and end-market concentration in semiconductors
- FX headwind structural to a CHF reporting base
- Rich valuation leaves little margin for execution error
Bottlenecks
- Reported-revenue drag from a persistently strong Swiss franc
- Margin recovery gated by Penang start-up and efficiency-program one-offs (~3pp)
- Order-to-sales conversion timing — Q1-2026 orders strong but sales lag
- Elevated FY2025 tax rate compressing net income
- Small scale vs. AEIS/MKSI limits pricing and R&D leverage
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Leading indicator of the WFE cycle turning; orders lead reported sales.
Management confidence backed by the order book.
Recovery largely priced in; raises the bar for delivery.
Trough profitability and cash preservation for Penang.
Third-party estimates cited by the company support the ramp.
Trends
More etch/deposition steps and advanced packaging lift RF-power content per tool.
Direct tailwind to PCT volumes and margins.
Chinese WFE demand is large but policy-exposed; supply chains bifurcating.
Wins Asian OEM share but carries near-term start-up cost.
Chronic reported-growth and translation headwind.
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Comet manufactures a key RF component internally — a vertical-integration advantage rather than an external dependency.
Electronic-component / semiconductor suppliers Power semiconductors, control ICs, connectors for RF generators and match networks.
Precision-mechanical and X-ray-tube/detector suppliers Inputs for X-ray systems/modules and e-beam equipment.
Leading etch/deposition WFE OEM — a core embedder of RF power delivery in plasma tools.
Largest WFE OEM; deposition/etch platforms are RF-power-intensive.
Major Japanese WFE OEM (8035.T); etch/deposition customer for RF power.
Industrial / aerospace / electronics manufacturers Buyers of Yxlon industrial CT and X-ray modules for non-destructive testing and inspection.
e-beam sterilization end-users.
US leader in precision RF/DC power delivery for semiconductor plasma tools — Comet PCT's largest direct competitor.
US, broad WFE subsystems incl. RF/microwave power and vacuum — competes across PCT's space with far greater scale.
Industrial X-ray/CT metrology competing with Comet's IXS/Yxlon in non-destructive testing.
Waygate is a major industrial X-ray/CT and NDT player competing with Yxlon.
NSI industrial CT systems overlap Comet's X-ray systems division.
Private/foundation-owned; premium industrial CT and metrology competing with IXS.
Context only, not a buy/own call: China's domestic etch/deposition OEMs both drive Comet's Chinese demand and, longer-term, could localize RF subsystems.