Galaxy Digital
Diversified crypto merchant bank: (1) Digital Assets operating segment (trading/market-making, lending/prime, investment banking, asset management + ETFs, staking); (2) Data Centers segment leasing power/critical-load capacity (Helios, West Texas) to AI/HPC tenants under long-term contracts; (3) Treasury/Corporate (own balance-sheet crypto and venture positions). Earnings mix is transaction/spread + fee + AUM + emerging long-term lease revenue.
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
Two engines on very different clocks. The crypto operating business (Digital Assets segment) posted a RECORD $505M adjusted gross profit in FY2025 (+67% YoY), broad-based across trading, lending, investment banking, asset management and staking. But GAAP swung to a FY2025 net loss of -$241M (~$160M of it one-time items — mining write-downs, US-listing/reorg costs, exchangeable-note marks) because Treasury/Corporate marked its own crypto and venture book down (-$86M adj. gross loss) into a Q4 crypto-price drawdown, and Q4 alone lost -$482M. Q1 2026 continued the loss (-$216.3M) with $284.4M of digital-asset impairment as the total crypto market fell ~20%. The strategic story is the pivot: legacy Helios Bitcoin-mining land in West Texas is being converted to an AI/HPC data-center campus, with 800MW of long-term capacity committed to CoreWeave (526MW firm across Phases I-III), 1.6GW+ ERCOT-approved and multi-GW of additional site potential, projected to generate $1B+/yr average revenue over 15 years once ramped. Balance sheet is solid for the pivot (YE2025 equity $3.0B, cash+stablecoins $2.6B) but capex-heavy and levered by the $1.4B project facility. Headline gross 'revenue' ($61.4B FY25 / $10.0B Q1'26) is trading turnover and should be ignored in favor of adjusted gross profit.
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~0¢ is cost of goods and ~0¢ operating expense, leaving ~100¢ of operating profit (~241¢ net).
Revenue trend
Margins
loss driven by Q4 crypto drawdown + ~$160M one-time items
continued loss on impairments
positive but thin vs Q3'25 record $629M single-qtr
record, +67% YoY
unrealized marks, cyclical
COGS structure
For the operating business, effectively transaction/counterparty and market-making spread costs plus interest on the loan book (avg loan book ~$1.8B); gross digital-asset sales are ~fully offset by equal transaction expense (Q1 2026: ~$10.0B sales vs ~$10.0B transaction expense). For Data Centers, COGS is construction, power procurement (ERCOT), equipment and O&M — pre-revenue/ramping. Comp & benefits ~$83.5M in Q1 2026.
Capex
Ramping sharply for the Helios build-out: $337.9M PP&E in Q1 2026 alone. Funded largely by a $1.4B project-financing facility (~$1.1B drawn) that fully funds the ~$1.7B Phase I build. Management frames Helios as multi-year, multi-billion capex to reach 1.6GW+ (and multi-GW of additional site potential).
Latest earnings
Loss narrower YoY (-$216.3M vs -$295.4M Q1 2025) but still a GAAP loss; the stock actually rose ~5% on the print — the loss came in narrower than feared and Helios delivered its first data hall to CoreWeave — even though the shares sit ~37% below their level six months earlier
No formal financial guidance issued; management reiterates $1B+/yr average Helios/CoreWeave revenue over 15 years once fully ramped and continued data-center capacity expansion (1.6GW+ approved, additional multi-GW site potential under study)
- Q1 2026 net loss
- -$216.3M
- Q1 2026 EPS
- -$0.49
- Total assets
- $9.99B
- Stockholders' equity (attributable)
- $1.81B (total equity ~$2.8B incl. NCI)
- Cash
- $910.7M
- Digital assets held
- $3.67B
- Notes payable
- $3.06B
- CoreWeave contracted capacity
- 800MW (526MW firm)
- Helios approved capacity
- 1.6GW+
Growth drivers
- Helios AI/HPC data-center campus ramp — CoreWeave 800MW long-term commitment (526MW firm Phases I-III), Phase I ~133MW delivering 1H 2026 (first data hall delivered Q1 2026); targeted $1B+/yr avg revenue over 15 years
- Asset management & infrastructure inflows — AUM $6.4B + assets-under-stake $5.0B at YE2025, $2.0B net inflows (34% organic growth); ETF and staking product expansion
- Global Markets scaling — record $295M adj. gross profit in Q3 2025 (vs $55.4M Q2 2025), growing loan book (~$1.8B avg) and prime/derivatives
- Investment banking / advisory in a maturing institutional crypto market (record IB quarter in Q3 2025)
- Balance-sheet optionality — own crypto and venture book leveraged to a crypto up-cycle
- Potential index inclusion / broader institutional ownership after sole-listing on Nasdaq (TSX delisted 2026-03-19)
Reported financials — SEC EDGAR
Audited GAAP figures pulled from SEC filings · latest filing 2026-02-26. The audited primary-source spine — not financial advice.
Revenue — annual (GAAP)
Margins & balance sheet — FY’25
Bull & bear
A crypto franchise with record operating profit that owns a scarce, permitted gigawatt-scale power/data-center asset with a signed hyperscale tenant — an infrastructure re-rating hiding inside a crypto stock.
- Helios is a genuine, hard-to-replicate asset: 1.6GW+ ERCOT-approved (multi-GW additional site potential) with a CoreWeave 800MW long-term commitment targeting $1B+/yr average revenue over 15 years — contracted, long-duration cash flow the market barely credits
- Digital Assets operating segment set a record $505M adjusted gross profit in FY2025 (+67% YoY), proving the core franchise scales; strip out mark-to-market noise and the operating business is growing
- Balance sheet supports the pivot — YE2025 $3.0B equity, $2.6B cash+stablecoins — plus $3.7B of on-balance-sheet crypto giving leverage to any up-cycle
- Sole Nasdaq listing (TSX delisted 2026-03-19) broadens the US institutional and index-eligible investor base
- Optionality stack: neocloud/AI data-center leasing + crypto up-cycle + fee-AUM growth ($6.4B AUM, $5.0B staked, 34% organic inflows) — multiple ways to win
A loss-making, balance-sheet-heavy crypto trader levering up on a speculative, single-tenant AI data-center bet whose economics depend on a cash-burning counterparty and crypto prices at the same time.
- GAAP losses are the headline reality: -$241M FY2025, -$482M Q4 2025, -$216.3M Q1 2026, with $284.4M of digital-asset impairment in Q1 alone — earnings are hostage to crypto marks
- The data-center pivot is early and unproven: Data Centers contributed only $7.2M adj. gross profit in FY2025 while capex ran $338M in a single quarter — years of spend before meaningful revenue
- Rising leverage (~$3.06B notes + a $1.4B Helios facility ~$1.1B drawn) and negative FCF during a crypto drawdown squeeze the risk budget
- Concentration on CoreWeave — a highly levered AI-infra tenant — is a single point of failure for the entire infrastructure thesis; execution/power-timeline slippage compounds it
- Governance: controlled company with founder super-voting stock and a wildly volatile results profile make it a hard institutional own; the stock is down ~37% over 6 months despite a positive earnings-day pop
- Valuation is a story premium — bulls capitalize a 15-year lease that has barely started delivering power
What it is worth
Sum-of-the-parts: (1) crypto operating franchise valued on normalized adjusted gross profit / adj. EBITDA through-cycle; (2) Helios data-center segment valued on contracted long-term lease cash flows (CoreWeave $1B+/yr over 15 yrs) plus optional value of the multi-GW expansion pipeline, benchmarked to neocloud/data-center comps; (3) on-balance-sheet crypto (~$3.7B) and venture book at mark, net of ~$3.06B notes + the $1.4B project facility (~$1.1B drawn).
Crypto drawdown compresses trading and marks down the balance-sheet book while data-center capex/leverage rise and power/tenant timelines slip; continued GAAP losses and dilution pressure the stock below current levels.
Crypto franchise earns through-cycle profit funding a gradual, on-schedule Helios build; equity roughly range-bound near current levels until data-center revenue becomes visible in reported segment results.
Helios ramps on schedule and expands beyond CoreWeave; infrastructure cash flows re-rate the stock toward a data-center multiple while a crypto up-cycle lifts operating profit and the balance-sheet book — a materially higher equity value (well above the current ~$24.6).
Reported market cap is ~$4.7B on the Class A float, or ~$9B on an all-classes basis including Novogratz's Class B; on either basis the market appears to credit the crypto franchise plus only partial value for a de-risked Helios ramp — the equity is effectively a call option on data-center execution. GAAP losses make earnings multiples uninformative; the swing factor is how much of the contracted (and pipeline) power actually energizes on schedule. Not financial advice.
SWOT
Strengths
- Full-stack crypto merchant bank — trading, lending, banking, asset management and staking under one roof; record $505M Digital Assets adj. gross profit FY2025
- Founder-CEO Novogratz brand and institutional relationships — a go-to counterparty for institutional digital-asset access
- Solid capital base for the pivot: YE2025 equity $3.0B, cash+stablecoins $2.6B
- Rare, scarce asset in Helios — 1.6GW+ ERCOT-approved power with multi-GW expansion runway, plus a marquee CoreWeave anchor tenant
- Diversified fee base cushioning trading cyclicality — AUM $6.4B + $5.0B staked with 34% organic inflows
Weaknesses
- GAAP loss-making — FY2025 -$241M, Q1 2026 -$216.3M; earnings dominated by unrealized marks on its own crypto/venture book
- Extreme earnings volatility — Q3 2025 +$505M net income to Q4 2025 -$482M in one quarter
- Rising leverage and negative free cash flow during a multi-billion-dollar data-center build
- Complex dual-focus story that is hard to value — controlled-company structure concentrates voting power in Novogratz (governance discount)
- Overhang from a $120M LUNA-related legal settlement payable in installments in 2027 and 2028
Opportunities
- AI/HPC neocloud demand — convert crypto-mining land + power into long-duration, contracted data-center cash flows that could re-rate the equity from crypto-cyclical to infrastructure
- Expand CoreWeave and add additional hyperscale/neocloud tenants across the multi-GW site potential under study
- Grow fee-based AUM and staking to smooth cyclical trading earnings
- Institutional adoption tailwinds (spot ETFs, tokenization, stablecoins) feeding trading, banking and custody-adjacent revenue
Threats
- Crypto price cycles directly hit trading volumes AND its balance-sheet marks (double exposure)
- CoreWeave counterparty/customer-concentration risk — the anchor tenant is itself a highly levered, cash-burning AI-infra name
- Data-center execution risk — power delivery timelines (ERCOT interconnect), construction/EPC, cost inflation, GPU/tenant demand cyclicality
- Regulatory shifts in digital assets (SEC/CFTC, stablecoin rules) and competition from better-capitalized players (Coinbase, BlackRock)
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
if built out 1.6GW+ ERCOT-approved capacity with multi-GW expansion runway is genuinely hard to replicate quickly; interconnect queues are the bottleneck rivals face
Relationships and full-stack product breadth create stickiness, but trading/lending is competitive and spread-compressing
$3B equity + $1.4B project financing lets it self-fund the pivot; erodes in a deep crypto bear market
Contract-dependent Multi-year contracted revenue is real but also a concentration risk if the tenant falters
Dependencies
Drives both trading revenue and mark-to-market on its own $3.7B crypto book — double exposure
Customer/counterparty Single hyperscale tenant underwrites the Helios revenue thesis; CRWV is itself levered and cash-burning
Infrastructure/regulatory Timeline and cost of energizing 1.6GW+ gate the data-center ramp
$1.4B Helios facility (~$1.1B drawn) + $3.06B notes; further build needs continued capital access
Rules on ETFs, staking, lending and stablecoins shape the operating segment
Tenant demand (and rent) ultimately rides the AI-compute buildout cycle
Advantages
- First-mover converting owned crypto-mining land + permitted power into AI/HPC capacity at gigawatt scale
- Diversified crypto revenue engines (trading, lending, banking, AM, staking) that can fund the pivot
- Marquee CoreWeave anchor validating the data-center offering
- Strong capital base and Nasdaq listing broadening investor access
Weaknesses
- Persistent GAAP losses and highly volatile, mark-to-market-driven earnings
- Negative free cash flow and rising leverage during the build phase
- Data-center segment still pre-revenue-scale (single-digit-$M contribution)
- Controlled-company governance and founder key-man risk
- Complex, hard-to-model dual-focus equity that trades on narrative
Bottlenecks
- Power energization and construction timelines at Helios (ERCOT interconnect, EPC schedule)
- Multi-billion capex outlay running years ahead of data-center revenue
- Crypto-cycle drawdowns hitting the balance-sheet book while capex is fixed
- Customer concentration on a single anchor data-center tenant
- Access to continued project financing without excessive dilution or leverage
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Expanding contracted + potential capacity underpins the infrastructure thesis
Cleaner US-listing, potential index eligibility and broader ownership
Balance-sheet marks continue to dominate GAAP results
Market skeptical on losses/leverage despite Helios progress
Committed build funding, but rising leverage and cash burn
Growing fee base diversifies away from trading
Trends
High positive · Directly monetizes Helios; the core re-rating driver
Validates the model but adds competition for tenants and power (CORZ, WULF, IREN, CIFR, APLD)
Tailwind for trading, banking and asset management
Negative near-term · Compresses trading and marks down the balance-sheet book
Raises the cost of the leveraged data-center expansion
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Grid interconnect and power supply for Helios — the gating input
GPU demand from tenants ultimately underwrites data-center rents (indirect)
Build-out of Helios critical-load capacity
Stablecoin (USDC) liquidity/settlement rails for trading and treasury
Anchor data-center tenant — 800MW long-term commitment (526MW firm)
Institutional trading counterparties / hedge funds Market-making, lending and prime clients
AUM $6.4B + $5.0B staked
Investment-banking / advisory clients (crypto-native firms) M&A, capital-markets advisory
Largest US crypto exchange/prime broker; overlaps trading, custody, institutional and staking
AI neocloud — simultaneously Galaxy's anchor DATA-CENTER CUSTOMER and a reference point for the AI-infra economics
Miner-turned-AI-data-center operator (subject of CoreWeave acquisition interest); direct HPC-hosting competitor
Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI/HPC hosting; competes for tenants and power
Miner/data-center operator scaling AI-cloud and colocation
Miner converting sites to HPC/AI hosting with hyperscaler deals
AI/HPC data-center developer leasing to neocloud tenants
Growing crypto trading + tokenization footprint competing for retail/institutional flow
Dominates crypto ETF/asset-management (IBIT); pressures Galaxy's AM ambitions
Crypto balance-sheet proxy competing for the 'levered-to-crypto' equity dollar