Quantum Computing Inc.
Hardware + foundry: sells entropy-quantum optimization machines (Dirac series), TFLN photonic-chip foundry services (Fab 1, Tempe AZ), and — post-acquisition — photonic components (lasers, photodiodes, packaging) and quantum-cybersecurity products; primarily project/government contracts + early foundry pre-orders, not yet recurring commercial scale.
The thesis on this name
State of Quantum Computing
The weakest-thesis pure-play: ~$2.0-2.4B mcap on ~$4.3M TTM revenue with an unproven entropy/photonic approach and a just-announced NHanced Semiconductors deal that reads as a pivot to a foundry story to justify the valuation. Cleanest fundamental short in the cohort — but a SLOW-BLEED short (the ~$1.4B cash means no imminent solvency catalyst), so size small with a hard stop; momentum can run it 50% against you on any sector rally.
State of Quantum Computing
Cleanest fundamental short — ~$2.0-2.4B mcap on ~$4.3M TTM revenue, unproven entropy/photonic (TFLN) approach, and a just-announced NHanced Semiconductors deal that reads as a valuation-justifying pivot; slow-bleed, so small + hard stop.
State of Quantum Computing
The weakest-thesis pure-play: ~$2.0-2.4B mcap on ~$4.3M TTM revenue with a still-unproven entropy/photonic (TFLN) approach and a just-announced NHanced Semiconductors acquisition that reads as a pivot to a foundry story. ~$1.4B cash means no near-term solvency catalyst — this is a slow-bleed short into the next sector-wide derating / capital-raise dilution event, not a squeeze trade. Small size + hard stop; momentum can run it 50% against you on a sector rally.
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
A capital-funded R&D platform, not a self-funded operating business. FY25 organic revenue was ~$0.68M against ~$51M operating loss; Q1 FY26 revenue jumped to $3.7M almost entirely from the acquired Luminar Semiconductor (LSI) photonics-components business, while gross margin stayed negative and opex more than doubled to $19.8M. The defining asset is the ~$1.4B cash hoard raised by selling 86.3M shares for ~$1,475M in 2025 — runway is measured in many years, but per-share value rests on converting cash into a real photonics franchise, not on current earnings.
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~99¢ is cost of goods and ~0¢ operating expense, leaving ~1¢ of operating profit.
Revenue trend
Margins
Still below breakeven; LSI revenue carries cost of goods that exceeds price at current scale
Structurally negative; opex scaling faster than revenue (Q1 FY26 opex $19.8M)
Widening in absolute terms as headcount/fab/M&A spend ramps
COGS structure
COGS now dominated by the acquired LSI photonic-components manufacturing (lasers, photodiodes, packaging) plus early TFLN foundry production; at current volumes COGS exceeds revenue, producing a gross loss. Not disclosed at line-item granularity.
Capex
Fab 1 (Tempe AZ TFLN foundry, opened 2025) buildout; a larger Fab 2 announced for higher-volume production; $110M all-cash LSI acquisition (Feb 2026) + ~$5M NuCrypt (Mar 2026). Specific maintenance-capex run-rate not disclosed.
Latest earnings
Beat — revenue $3.7M vs ~$3.34M consensus (+~11%); EPS -$0.02 vs -$0.05 expected (beat by ~$0.03). Both flattered by the LSI acquisition and one-off items; the prior-year 'net income' was non-operating (warrant/derivative gains).
No formal forward revenue/EPS guidance issued; management framed 2026 as a year of revenue acceleration as the foundry scales and LSI integrates.
- Revenue
- $3.7M (Q1 FY26) vs $39K Q1 FY25
- Net loss
- ($4.1M), -$0.02/sh
- Operating expenses
- $19.8M (R&D $6.97M, G&A $11.26M, S&M $1.60M)
- Cash & investments
- ~$1.4B
- Contract backlog
- ~$16M
- Gate-based QC milestone
- Microwave-resonator quality factor at 2M vs 10M target
Growth drivers
- Vertical integration of the photonic signal chain via LSI — light generation (TFLN) → detection/photodiodes → packaging — to sell into datacom, telecom, defense and sensing
- TFLN foundry (Fab 1, scaling to Fab 2) as US-based merchant photonic-chip manufacturing for datacom/telecom/AI-interconnect demand
- Dirac-series entropy-quantum optimization machines on government/research contracts (e.g. NASA Goddard phase-unwrapping, Quantum Corridor network placement)
- NuCrypt quantum-communications/cybersecurity IP extending reach into defense, aerospace and international markets
- ~$1.4B cash to fund multi-year R&D, M&A and fab scale-up without near-term financing pressure
Reported financials — SEC EDGAR
Audited GAAP figures pulled from SEC filings · latest filing 2026-03-02. The audited primary-source spine — not financial advice.
Revenue — annual (GAAP)
Margins & balance sheet — FY’25
Bull & bear
A debt-free company sitting on ~$1.4B of cash — roughly two-thirds of its market cap — that has used the war chest to buy itself a real, revenue-generating, vertically-integrated photonics franchise (TFLN foundry + Luminar Semiconductor's lasers/photodiodes/packaging), giving it optionality on the AI-interconnect/datacom photonics wave and a multi-year runway to mature its Dirac entropy and gate-based quantum bets without dilution pressure.
- Balance sheet is the asset: ~$1.4B net cash vs ~$2.1B market cap means the market ascribes only ~$0.7B to the entire operating business — a thin premium for a US photonics-chip foundry plus quantum IP if execution lands.
- Vertical integration is now real, not a slide: the $110M LSI deal brings shipping photonic components (lasers, photodiodes, packaging) with aerospace/defense/industrial relationships, converting a pre-revenue story into one with ~$3.7M quarterly revenue and a ~$16M backlog.
- US-based TFLN merchant foundry (Fab 1, Fab 2 planned) is differentiated supply for datacom/telecom/AI-interconnect and sensing — a domestic-photonics-manufacturing thesis with national-security tailwinds and few US-listed pure-play comps.
- Room-temperature, chip-integrated, photonic approach (vs cryogenic superconducting / vacuum trapped-ion) could scale more cheaply if the physics matures; Dirac machines already win government/research contracts (NASA Goddard, Quantum Corridor).
- No near-term financing cliff: with ~$1.4B cash and ~$47M annual EBITDA burn, runway is effectively a decade — rare for a quantum pure-play and removes the going-concern overhang that dogs peers.
A textbook speculative small-cap: the ~$1.4B cash was raised by issuing 86.3M shares (massive dilution), trailing organic revenue is ~$0.68M, gross margin is negative even after buying a revenue business, and the quantum narrative (entropy 'Dirac' machines, photonic gate-based QC) remains scientifically contested with no shipped commercial workloads. Roughly 29% of the float is short for a reason — the equity is a leveraged bet on a story, not on cash flows.
- Revenue is a mirage on the org chart: the Q1 FY26 jump to $3.7M is almost entirely acquired LSI components revenue, not Dirac or foundry sales — and it still produced a gross loss, so the 'business' loses money on every dollar of revenue.
- Dilution is the core mechanism: 86.3M shares sold for ~$1,475M in 2025; the cash pile exists because shareholders were diluted, and the ATM/shelf machinery means more issuance is likely. Per-share upside is continuously eroded.
- The quantum thesis is unproven and disputed: 'entropy quantum computing' is not a consensus-validated paradigm, and the gate-based effort is far from target (resonator Q at 2M vs 10M needed). Skeptics question whether the Dirac machines are meaningfully 'quantum.'
- Valuation is unsupported by fundamentals — ~$2.1B market cap on ~$0.68M FY25 revenue (and negative gross margin) is a pure narrative/cash-floor multiple; the 52-week range ($6.18–$25.84) shows it trades on sentiment and quantum-sector beta, not results.
- Acquisition-led pivot is dilutive to focus and unproven on integration: buying a lidar-parent's semiconductor unit and a small crypto-photonics firm is an admission the organic roadmap was too thin to monetize — execution/integration risk is high and the businesses are sub-scale.
- Smallest, highest-beta name in its peer group (vs IONQ's ~$130M revenue and $3.1B cash, RGTI's CHIPS/NVIDIA anchors) — last in line on contract pipeline and most exposed to a quantum-hype unwind.
What it is worth
Sum-of-parts cash-floor + reverse-DCF sanity, cross-checked against quantum pure-play comps (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS). With ~$1.4B net cash and ~$2.1B market cap, the implied operating-business value is ~$0.7B on ~$0.68M FY25 (and gross-loss) revenue — i.e. the market prices a real photonics franchise that does not yet exist financially. Reverse-DCF: justifying $0.7B of enterprise value requires the foundry+LSI+quantum stack to reach hundreds of millions of high-margin revenue within ~5–7 years — a heroic, unproven ramp.
~$1.0–1.4B (~$4.5–6.20/sh)
converges toward the cash floor minus expected dilution/burn if the quantum thesis deflates and integration disappoints; near the 52-wk low of $6.18.
~$1.8–2.2B (~$8–10/sh)
roughly the current quote: ~$1.4B cash + a modest, optionality-driven premium for the photonics pivot, with no fundamental revenue support yet.
~$3.5–5.5B (~$15–24/sh)
re-rates toward the 52-wk high if Fab 2 scales into real merchant-foundry revenue, LSI integration drives gross-margin-positive growth, and quantum sentiment stays hot.
Not financial advice. Valuation is a narrative-plus-cash construct, not earnings-supported; the cash floor is the only hard anchor and is itself eroded by ongoing dilution. Wide bull/bear spread reflects genuine binary outcomes.
SWOT
Strengths
- ~$1.4B net cash, essentially debt-free — multi-year runway and M&A firepower rare among quantum pure-plays
- Now owns a real, revenue-generating, vertically-integrated photonics signal chain (TFLN foundry + LSI lasers/photodiodes/packaging)
- US-based merchant photonic-chip foundry (Fab 1, Tempe AZ) with domestic-manufacturing and defense tailwinds
- Government/research validation for Dirac optimization (NASA Goddard, Quantum Corridor)
Weaknesses
- Negative gross margin even after acquiring a revenue business — loses money per dollar of sales
- Trivial organic revenue (~$0.68M FY25); commercial traction unproven
- Massive historical dilution (86.3M shares issued in 2025) and active ATM/shelf machinery
- Scientifically contested 'entropy quantum' narrative; gate-based QC far from milestone (Q 2M vs 10M)
Opportunities
- AI-interconnect / datacom / telecom demand for TFLN photonics and US-sourced optical components
- Scale Fab 2 into merchant-foundry revenue; cross-sell LSI components into existing aerospace/defense accounts
- Quantum-cybersecurity (NuCrypt) into defense/aerospace/international
- Roll up sub-scale photonics assets using the cash hoard
Threats
- Quantum-hype unwind / sector-wide multiple compression hits the highest-beta name hardest
- Better-capitalized, faster-shipping peers (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, IBM, Google) and established photonics vendors (Coherent, Lumentum, NVIDIA optics)
- Continued dilution erodes per-share value; ~29% short interest signals structural skepticism
- Integration failure of LSI/NuCrypt; foundry yield/scale-up risk
- Scientific/credibility risk if Dirac 'quantum' claims are challenged
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
~$1.4B funds multi-year R&D/M&A — a real but spendable advantage, not a structural moat; erodes as it's burned/diluted.
Domestic merchant photonics manufacturing is scarce and has national-security pull, but yield/scale and incumbent competition (COHR, LITE) gate it.
Owning light-generation→detection→packaging is differentiating only if integrated cost/performance beats merchant supply; unproven at scale.
Patents and NASA/Quantum-Corridor wins give credibility, but the paradigm is contested and not yet a commercial flywheel.
Dependencies
The model is funded by share issuance; the entire thesis depends on capital-markets willingness to keep funding a pre-profit photonics/quantum build-out — at the cost of dilution.
As the highest-beta pure-play, valuation is hostage to quantum-hype cycles more than to its own results.
The new revenue base and vertical-integration thesis live or die on integrating acquired sub-scale businesses.
Merchant-foundry economics require yield and volume QUBT has not yet demonstrated.
customer-concentration Early credibility revenue is government-anchored and lumpy; not a recurring commercial base.
Maturation of contested quantum physics (entropy + photonic gate-based) Gate-based milestone (Q 2M vs 10M) and the scientific standing of 'entropy quantum' remain unresolved.
Advantages
- Largest cash-to-market-cap ratio in its peer set — ~$1.4B net cash vs ~$2.1B cap caps downside near the cash floor
- Owns shipping photonic-components revenue + relationships (via LSI) that most quantum pure-plays lack
- US-domestic photonic-chip manufacturing — scarce supply with policy tailwinds
- Debt-free with ~decade of runway at current burn — no going-concern overhang
Weaknesses
- Negative gross and operating margins; ~$0.68M FY25 organic revenue against ~$47M EBITDA loss
- Revenue 'growth' is acquisition-manufactured, not organic Dirac/foundry traction
- Chronic dilution (86.3M shares in 2025) structurally caps per-share value
- Contested scientific narrative + incomplete gate-based roadmap
- Smallest, most sentiment-driven name in the quantum cohort
Bottlenecks
- Negative gross margin — COGS exceeds revenue, so scaling current sales widens losses until foundry/component unit economics invert
- TFLN foundry yield and throughput — merchant-foundry revenue requires manufacturing maturity not yet demonstrated
- Gate-based quantum hardware gap — resonator quality factor at 2M vs the 10M target; no stated timeline to close it
- Commercial sales motion — almost all 'revenue' is acquired or government-contract; no proven repeatable commercial pipeline for Dirac/foundry
- Credibility — contested quantum claims and ~29% short interest raise the bar for every milestone announcement
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Headline beat is real; the quality is low because it's acquired components revenue at a gross loss.
A deep cash floor caps downside and funds the pivot for years; the question is per-share value after dilution.
Until COGS < revenue, scale makes losses bigger, not smaller.
Structural skepticism + extreme volatility; trades on sentiment, squeezes both ways.
The cash exists because of dilution; more issuance likely caps upside.
Converts a story into a shipping-products company with a backlog (~$16M), if integration lands.
Core quantum-hardware roadmap is materially incomplete; timelines unstated.
Credibility and pilot revenue, but small and non-recurring — not yet a commercial flywheel.
Trends
Largest legitimate tailwind for the foundry+LSI strategy — if QUBT can supply, the addressable market is large and growing.
Favors a domestic TFLN merchant foundry; peers (RGTI) have already won CHIPS grants.
Inflates and deflates the whole cohort; QUBT is the most exposed given tiny float and high beta.
QUBT's M&A pivot rides this; so do better-funded peers, raising competition for assets and talent.
Investor/skeptic focus on whether revenue and 'quantum' claims are real pressures narrative names hardest.
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Now a wholly-owned QUBT subsidiary (acquired $110M, Feb 2026 from Luminar Technologies, LAZR) — supplies lasers, photodiodes and advanced packaging internally.
Acquired ~$5M (Mar 2026); supplies quantum-communications/cybersecurity photonics IP.
Lithium-niobate wafer / specialty-optics & semiconductor-equipment vendors TFLN substrate, photonics fab tooling and packaging materials for Fab 1/Fab 2 — specific vendors not disclosed.
Prime contract applying Dirac-3 to radar interferometry phase-unwrapping — anchor government customer.
Quantum Corridor / research-network operators Dirac-3 placed on the Quantum Corridor network for optimization workloads.
Target merchant-foundry and LSI-component buyers for TFLN photonics (named accounts not disclosed).
Inherited via LSI's existing commercial relationships; extended by NuCrypt cybersecurity reach.
Largest quantum pure-play: trapped-ion, ~$130M FY25 revenue, ~$3.1B cash, hyperscaler cloud + ID Quantique networking. Sets the bar QUBT is 'catching up' to.
Superconducting full-stack; revenue ~$4.4M, NVIDIA NVQLink partner + ~$100M CHIPS grant. Comparable micro-revenue but stronger hardware milestones/anchors.
Quantum annealing for optimization — the most commercially mature architecture and a direct analog to Dirac's optimization use-cases; shares the heavy-dilution profile.
Superconducting roadmap leader with enormous resources and enterprise reach; sets credibility expectations for the whole field.
Willow/error-correction milestones define scientific SOTA; not a commercial competitor but a narrative-credibility threat to small pure-plays.
Established photonics/laser + optical-components leader; competes with LSI/TFLN ambitions in datacom/telecom photonics with far greater scale.
Scaled photonics/optical-component vendor for datacom/telecom — the incumbent QUBT's foundry+LSI strategy must displace.