State of the AI Cloud
Who owns the GPUs, who rents them, and who gets paid — the compute-CAPACITY stack (hyperscaler cloud · neoclouds · crypto→AI-DC · the capacity-deal graph · orbital frontier) priced as toll-collectors, with the whole board a single AI-capex factor bet.
Own the best-capitalized, most-diversified toll-collectors of AI compute capacity — hyperscaler clouds with in-house accelerators (GOOGL/TPU, AMZN/Trainium) and the de-risked miner-pivots (IREN's Microsoft anchor, Google-backstopped WULF/CIFR) — and be selective-to-short on single-tenant concentration (ORCL ~54% OpenAI) and valuations pricing flawless multi-year execution (SPCX ~87x P/S). Rent the compute story, don't overpay for the concentration.
In 2026 the scarce asset is no longer the GPU — it is energized, contracted compute CAPACITY, and demand outstrips supply at every provider. Big-four hyperscaler AI capex is tracking ~$725B (up ~77% YoY; ~$700-900B incl. Oracle, Tom's Hardware/ValueAddVC Q2 2026), yet Microsoft still carries an ~$80B unfulfillable Azure backlog for lack of power, and even model-first Meta is standing up 'Meta Compute' to resell excess GPUs (reported 1 Jul 2026). CORRELATED-EXPOSURE WARNING: this whole board is secretly ONE bet — that the AI-datacenter capex super-cycle keeps compounding. Two consecutive hyperscaler capex guide-downs reprice every layer at once, hyperscalers to miners; diversifying across the five layers does NOT diversify this single factor. House call: own the toll-collectors with the deepest, best-capitalized tenant books and de-risked power; underweight/short single-tenant concentration and stretched multiples; treat the orbital frontier (Layer 5) as watchlist-only venture-exposure with NO investable public buy. US-first; every position carries a bull AND a bear; private names (OpenAI, Anthropic, Crusoe, Lambda, Together, Reflection, Etched, Starcloud) are analyzed but flagged NOT ownable.
No single provider dominates the capacity market the way a foundry dominates the chip stack — capacity is a distributed oligopoly where the SAME names appear on both sides. The most durable positions are the hyperscalers that own a differentiated in-house accelerator (Google/TPU, Amazon/Trainium): they cut their own cost AND rent a Nvidia-alternative, funded by a profitable core, so they collect the capacity toll whoever wins the model war. Anthropic's up-to-1M-TPU + up-to-5GW-Trainium commitments are the cleanest proof the merchant-silicon renter base is real. The fragile positions are single-tenant-concentrated (Oracle ~54%/~$300B RPO on one unprofitable counterparty; every miner-pivot on one neocloud) and the stretched non-traditional provider (SpaceX at ~87x P/S on cancellable leases). Dominance here is a function of tenant-book quality and power de-risking, not of a single technology chokepoint.
Full-stack value chain
The AI compute-CAPACITY stack from the hyperscaler cloud down to the crypto→AI-DC power operators, the capacity-deal graph that binds them, and the orbital frontier. The marker shows where the capacity crunch is a tailwind, headwind, or mixed for each layer's margin pool. Tap any layer for the full read — and remember the whole board is one AI-capex factor bet.
The best-capitalized toll-collectors — hyperscalers with in-house silicon (GOOGL/TPU, AMZN/Trainium) and the miner-pivots on already-energized power (IREN, Google-backstopped WULF/CIFR) — get stronger as the capacity crunch bites, because energized MW and a diversified tenant book, not venture debt, set the price. The levered neocloud middle and the single-tenant-concentrated names (ORCL) do not. Layer 5 (orbital) is watchlist-only — no public buy.
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Opportunity board
Own the toll-collector, not the tenant — the best-capitalized, most-diversified capacity providers; be selective-to-short on single-tenant concentration and stretched valuations. Every position carries a bull AND a bear; orbital is venture-watch only.
Durable compounder
2Undervalued / high-potential
4Short / avoid
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Full board analytics
The prediction matrix, scenario bands, regime timeline, book construction, premise tests and the shift-point register — the deep analytical layer behind this board.
- Prediction matrix & scenario bands
- Book construction & sizing
- Premise tests & falsifiers
- Shift-point register