State of Physical AI
A US-first value-chain map of humanoids, embodied AI, and smart hands — where the margin actually pools as of June 2026
Own the bottlenecks and the brains; rent the robots. Avoid pure-play OEM hype.
Concentrate exposure where defensibility is real and pricing power is durable: the compute layer (NVIDIA Jetson Thor effectively standard for on-robot inference) and the physical bottlenecks China weaponizes — rare-earth magnets, precision reducers, planetary roller screws. Among private names, prefer the defense-autonomy software franchises with revenue and contract backlogs (ANDURIL high-conviction at ~$61B, SHIELDAI medium at ~$12.7B with ~$540M 2026 revenue) over capital-intensive humanoid OEMs racing to sub-$20k price points before unit economics close (FIGURE medium at ~$39B — extraordinary deployment momentum but a hardware P&L still subsidized by venture capital). For public access, use diversified ecosystem ETFs (KOID for humanoid-pure, BOTZ/ROBO for breadth) plus the diversified arms (NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL) rather than single-name bets; this is not financial advice.
No single layer is 'won,' but the durable margin sits in two places: (1) edge compute, where NVIDIA Jetson Thor (Blackwell, 2,070 FP4 TFLOPS, 128GB) is the de-facto inference standard with CUDA lock-in and a vertically integrated GR00T model stack; and (2) the physical bottlenecks China controls — ~69% of rare-earth mining, ~90% of magnet refining (export-controlled since Apr 2025), plus precision reducers and planetary roller screws with 26+ week lead times. The AI-brain layer (Physical Intelligence π0, Figure Helix 02, NVIDIA GR00T N2) is the highest-optionality layer but the least settled — defensibility is still forming.
Full-stack value chain
Seven layers scored on bottleneck control + margin durability, not demand. The margin pools at the top (compute, magnets) and the bottom is a trap (OEM assembly).
The board's central lesson: a layer can be a genuine bottleneck (precision reducers, with 26+ week lead times) and STILL be a margin desert when a low-cost rival scales into it (Harmonic Drive's 2.7% net margin). Real, durable value pools where control is COMPOUNDING — compute (NVIDIA's chip+model+sim vertical) and the rare-earth chokepoint China defends with export controls. Own those layers (and the defense-autonomy software franchises) as the picks; rent the robot-OEM layer through diversified ETFs, because that's the layer where exploding demand and collapsing margin are the same place.
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Opportunity board
Where to position as of June 2026 — ranked by defensibility, then investability. Own the bottlenecks and the brains; get OEM exposure only through ETFs.
Durable compounder
4Undervalued / high-potential
6Short / avoid
0No names in this bucket.
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Full board analytics
The prediction matrix, scenario bands, regime timeline, book construction, premise tests and the shift-point register — the deep analytical layer behind this board.
- Prediction matrix & scenario bands
- Book construction & sizing
- Premise tests & falsifiers
- Shift-point register