State of Space & Launch
The $/kg cost curve, launch cadence + manifest backlog, and the LEO value chain — with the space-datacenter narrative pressure-tested as a 2030s option, not a 2026 driver.
Own the cash-generative US operators (IRDM, GSAT) and defense-prime space backlog (LMT/NOC) plus space ETFs (ARKX/UFO) as optionality; the $/kg collapse is real but its margin pool is captured by private SpaceX, not the listed comps.
Reusability has genuinely collapsed the cost curve — Falcon 9 marginal cost is ~$600-1,500/kg vs a ~$3,245/kg list and Starship targets sub-$500/kg (NextBigFuture/SatBase, Q1-Q2 2026) — but the durable LISTED margin pool is thin and concentrated: launch services itself is a SpaceX near-monopoly (private; $4.1B 2025 launch revenue, ~$2.3T post-IPO valuation) and the only fat, durable listed margins sit one layer up in mature connectivity operators (IRDM ~53% EBITDA, GSAT ~50%, Q1 2026) and in cost-plus defense-prime space backlog (LMT/NOC ~10% segment margin, riding SDA Tranche-3 + Golden Dome). Own those for cash + optionality, hold ARKX/UFO for diversified beta, and treat the space-datacenter narrative (Starcloud/Nvidia) as speculative call-option upside, not a 2026 driver. Falsifier: Starship reaching routine $/kg <$200 AND a listed pure-play launcher (RKLB Neutron) capturing >25% medium-lift share at >30% launch gross margin would move the durable pool down into the listed launch layer and invalidate the "own the operators, not the launchers" call.
SpaceX dominates the chain across launch + connectivity (Starlink ~$20B 2026E revenue, 63% EBITDA margin) and that dominance is durable and widening via Starship + reuse cadence (~140-145 Falcon launches 2026E, ~40% of global) — but it is PRIVATE, so for listed-market investors the dominant capturable pool is NOT the launcher. Among listed names dominance is fragmented: IRDM/GSAT dominate niche MSS/IoT economics, the primes dominate funded defense constellations, and RKLB is the only credible listed vertically-integrated neo-prime (launch + buses + thrusters) but is not yet a cash machine. Durable for the operators/primes; contested and capital-intensive for everyone competing with Starlink.
Full-stack value chain
Ten layers from end-demand (defense, commercial, constellations) down to the binding hardware constraints. The marker shows where the launch-cost collapse is a tailwind, headwind, or mixed for each layer’s margin pool. Tap any layer for the full read.
The layers the cost collapse feeds — defense demand, connectivity ARPU, EO/data analytics — and the scarce sub-layers it cannot compress — electric thrusters, rad-hard parts — strengthen as $/kg falls. The launchers themselves commoditize.
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Opportunity board
19 names sorted into three buckets — durable compounders, undervalued / high-potential, and short / avoid. Each tile shows its conviction; open one for the thesis, catalyst, and falsifier.
Durable compounder
6Undervalued / high-potential
10Short / avoid
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Full board analytics
The prediction matrix, scenario bands, regime timeline, book construction, premise tests and the shift-point register — the deep analytical layer behind this board.
- Prediction matrix & scenario bands
- Book construction & sizing
- Premise tests & falsifiers
- Shift-point register