Kinder Morgan
Fee-based, take-or-pay pipeline and storage infrastructure: ~two-thirds of cash flow is contracted/regulated volume-and-capacity fees (largely commodity-price-insensitive), with a smaller commodity-exposed CO2/EOR segment. C-corp (not an MLP) paying a quarterly dividend.
Sources — 20 figures with citations
- Revenue, Q2 2026 and 1H 2026filed2026-06-30$4,477M (Q2 2026) vs $4,042M (Q2 2025); $9,305M (1H 2026) vs $8,283M (1H 2025)sec.gov — Table 1, Preliminary Consolidated Statements of Income, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K filed 2026-07-22 (Item 2.02)
- Net income attributable to KMI, GAAP EPS, adj. net income, adj. EPS — Q2 2026filed2026-06-30$867M net income (+21% y/y); GAAP EPS $0.39 (+22%); adj. net income $821M (+33%); adj. EPS $0.37 (+32%)sec.gov — Tables 1 and 2. Total Certain Items were $(46)M in the quarter, which is why GAAP EPS exceeds adj. EPS
- Adjusted EBITDA — Q2 2026 and LTMfiled2026-06-30$2,199M in Q2 2026 (+12% y/y vs $1,972M); $4,738M 1H 2026; LTM to 2026-06-30 $9,000M (vs $8,391M LTM to 2025-12-31)sec.gov — Table 2 (quarterly reconciliation) and Table 5 (LTM reconciliation). Non-GAAP, reconciled to net income attributable to KMI
- Net debt and leveragefiled2026-06-30Net debt $32,027M at 2026-06-30 (vs $31,716M at 2025-12-31); net debt / LTM adj. EBITDA 3.6x (vs 3.8x). Cash and equivalents $89M; short-term debt $2,443M; long-term debt $29,701Msec.gov — Table 5, Preliminary Consolidated Balance Sheets and net-debt reconciliation
- Cash flow from operations, capex, FCF, dividends paid — Q2 2026filed2026-06-30CFO $1,960M; GAAP capex $982M; FCF $978M; dividends paid $665M; FCF after dividends $313M. Q2 2025 comparatives: CFO $1,649M, capex $647M, FCF $1,002Msec.gov — Table 6, Preliminary Supplemental Information. KMI defines FCF as CFO less all capex (sustaining plus expansion)
- Project backlog and build multiplefiled2026-06-30$9.6B at 2026-06-30, down $500M from Q1 2026; ~92% natural gas; >60% tied to power generation and LDC demand; remaining $8.5B expected to earn ~5.6x first-full-year Project EBITDA. ~$660M (KM-share) placed in service during the quarter; ~$200M of new additions; almost $400M contingently board-approved but not yet in backlogsec.gov — CEO Kim Dang commentary in Exhibit 99.1. The ~$200M additions figure is stated in the earnings-call coverage; the $500M net decline and $660M in-service are in the release itself
- FY2026 guidance (budget and raised outlook)filed2026-07-22Budget: net income $3.1B, adj. EPS $1.36, dividends $1.19/share, adj. EBITDA $8.6B, year-end net debt/adj. EBITDA 3.8x. Raised outlook: >5% favorable to budget on adj. EBITDA, >12% favorable on adj. EPS, year-end leverage 3.6xsec.gov — '2026 Outlook' section. Implied floors are derived: 8.6 x 1.05 = ~$9.03B adj. EBITDA; 1.36 x 1.12 = ~$1.52 adj. EPS
- Adjusted Segment EBDA by segment — Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025filed2026-06-30Natural Gas Pipelines $1,461M vs $1,347M; Products Pipelines $339M vs $289M; Terminals $309M vs $300M; CO2 $207M vs $145Msec.gov — Table 3. All four segments grew y/y; CO2 was the fastest grower, driven by price/volume rather than fees
- Volumes and realized commodity prices — Q2 2026filed2026-06-30Natural gas transport volumes +7% y/y; natural gas gathering volumes +26% y/y; refined products volumes -5%; crude and condensate -16%. Realized oil $73.78/Bbl vs $67.60; CO2-segment oil hedges: $64.54/Bbl remaining 2026, $63.92 for 2027, $67.28 for 2028sec.gov — President Dax Sanders segment commentary and Table 4 (Segment Volume and CO2 Segment Hedges Highlights)
- Dividend declaredfiled2026-07-22$0.2975 per share for Q2 2026 ($1.19 annualized), payable 2026-08-17 to holders of record 2026-08-03; +2% vs Q2 2025's $0.2925sec.gov — Opening paragraph of Exhibit 99.1 and Table 1
- Shares outstandingfiled2026-07-232,226,802,089 Class P shares outstanding as of 2026-07-23sec.gov — Cover page of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-24
- Share price (close)market2026-08-03$31.40 closing price on 2026-08-03 (-1.51% on the day)stockanalysis.com — Regular-session close, 2026-08-03 4:00 PM EDT — not an intraday high. Cross-checked against the Yahoo Finance chart API for KMI, which returns the same 31.40 last price (prior closes: 32.18 on 2026-07-31, 31.66 on 2026-07-30)
- Market capitalizationderived2026-08-03~$69.9B as of the 2026-08-03 closestockanalysis.com — Derived: $31.40 close (2026-08-03) x 2,226,802,089 shares outstanding (10-Q cover, 2026-07-23) = $69.92B. Independently corroborated by the $69.92B figure shown on the source page
- Enterprise value / LTM adjusted EBITDAderived2026-08-03~11.3xsec.gov — Derived: EV = $69.92B market cap (2026-08-03 close) + $32.027B net debt (2026-06-30, filed) = $101.95B; divided by LTM adj. EBITDA of $9.000B = 11.33x. Excludes the $1,248M noncontrolling interest
- Dividend yield and implied FY2026 P/Ederived2026-08-03~3.8% yield; ~20.7x implied FY2026 adjusted EPSsec.gov — Derived: $1.19 annualized dividend / $31.40 close = 3.79%. P/E: $31.40 / (adj. EPS budget $1.36 x 1.12 per the '>12% favorable to budget' guidance) = $31.40 / $1.52 = 20.7x
- Operating margin, capex intensity, FCF margin — Q2 2026derived2026-06-30Operating margin 30.1%; capex intensity 21.9% of revenue (vs 16.0% in Q2 2025); FCF margin 21.8%; dividend / FCF 68.0%sec.gov — Derived from Tables 1 and 6: operating income 1,346/4,477 = 30.1%; capex 982/4,477 = 21.9% and prior-year 647/4,042 = 16.0%; FCF 978/4,477 = 21.8%; dividends 665/978 = 68.0%
- FY2025 revenue (baseline for the TTM bridge)filed2025-12-31$16,937M for the year ended 2025-12-31data.sec.gov — SEC XBRL company-concept API, us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 10-K fact. Used to derive TTM revenue: 16,937 + 9,305 - 8,283 = $17,959M
- Post-quarter senior notes issuance (cost of capital)filed2026-07-28$1.75B priced 2026-07-28: $1,150M of 5.550% senior notes due 2036 and $600M of 6.150% senior notes due 2056sec.gov — Form 8-K filed 2026-08-03, Item 8.01. Post-balance-sheet event; sets the marginal debt cost against which the ~5.6x backlog build multiple should be judged
- Asset footprint (updated)filed2026-07-22Interest in or operation of ~78,000 miles of pipelines, 136 terminals, >700 Bcf of working natural gas storage capacity, ~6.9 Bcf/year gross RNG generation capacitysec.gov — Company-description paragraph in Exhibit 99.1. The '~66,000 miles of natural gas pipelines' figure is a gas-only subset stated on a different basis
- Large-project permitting statusfiled2026-07-22FERC issued a Final Environmental Impact Statement on 2026-06-26 covering both the SSE4 project (~$3.5B gross; KM-share incl. Elba Express ~$1.8B; +~1.3 Bcf/d) and TGP's Mississippi Crossing project (~$1.7B). FERC indicated it expected to issue certificates of public convenience and necessity for both by end of July 2026sec.gov — 'Other News - Natural Gas Pipelines' section. Note this is KMI's statement of FERC's EXPECTED timing; actual issuance of the certificate orders is listed in notVerified
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
FY2025 revenue $16.94B (+12% y/y), net income attributable to KMI $3.06B (+17%), GAAP EPS $1.37 (vs $1.17 FY2024), adj. EPS $1.30; adj. EBITDA $8.39B (record). Q1 2026 accelerated on cold-weather demand and gas-pipeline strength: revenue $4.83B, adj. EBITDA $2.54B (+18% y/y), adj. EPS $0.48 (+41%), GAAP EPS $0.44, net income $976M. Economics are fee-based and defensive; the growth story is a $10.1B backlog that is ~92% natural gas.
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~31¢ is cost of goods and ~38¢ operating expense, leaving ~30¢ of operating profit (~18¢ net).
Revenue trend
Margins
stable/expanding
improving (net income +17% y/y)
accelerating on weather + gas demand
deleveraging on EBITDA outperformance
COGS structure
Dominated by cost of gas/products purchased for resale (commodity pass-through) plus operations & maintenance, fuel, and utility costs on the pipeline and terminal network; because commodity purchases flow through revenue, the reported COGS line is inflated relative to the fee margin that actually drives economics.
Capex
Two buckets: (1) sustaining/maintenance capex to keep the pipeline and terminal base safe and compliant, and (2) discretionary growth capex (~$3.4B in the 2026 budget) funding the $10.1B project backlog. The remaining ~$8.6B of unbuilt backlog projects are expected to earn an aggregate ~5.6x first-full-year Project EBITDA build multiple (attractive vs. ~10-12x acquisition multiples), with an average in-service date around Q1 2028.
Latest earnings
Beat. Revenue $4,477M came in above the ~$4.20B street figure, and management stated adj. EBITDA was more than 9% above its own internal Q2 budget. Adj. EPS $0.37 vs $0.28 in Q2 2025; GAAP EPS $0.39 vs $0.32. All four segments grew Adjusted Segment EBDA y/y (Natural Gas Pipelines $1,461M vs $1,347M; Products $339M vs $289M; Terminals $309M vs $300M; CO2 $207M vs $145M)
The FY2026 budget is unchanged as the baseline (net income attributable to KMI $3.1B, adj. EPS $1.36, adj. EBITDA $8.6B, declared dividends $1.19/share, year-end net debt/adj. EBITDA 3.8x) but the outlook against it was raised: KMI now expects to be MORE THAN 5% favorable to budget on adj. EBITDA (implying >=~$9.03B, derived) and MORE THAN 12% favorable on adj. EPS (implying >=~$1.52, derived), and to end 2026 at 3.6x net debt/adj. EBITDA. This is an upgrade from the post-Q1 stance of >3% above the EBITDA budget
- Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026)
- $2,199M, +12% y/y (Q2 record)
- Adj. EPS (Q2 2026)
- $0.37, +32% y/y
- LTM adj. EBITDA (to 2026-06-30)
- $9,000M (vs $8,391M for FY2025)
- Net debt / adj. EBITDA
- 3.6x (from 3.8x at 2025-12-31)
- Project backlog
- $9.6B, down $500M q/q; ~92% natural gas, >60% power-gen + LDC demand
- Backlog build multiple
- ~5.6x first-full-year Project EBITDA on the remaining $8.5B (excludes CO2/EOR and G&P capital)
- Projects placed in service (Q2 2026)
- ~$660M KM-share (TGP Cumberland, Hiland Express, Gulf Coast Express expansion)
- Contingent board approval (not yet in backlog)
- almost $400M of additional projects
- Natural gas transport volumes
- +7% y/y
- Natural gas gathering volumes
- +26% y/y
- FCF / FCF after dividends (Q2 2026)
- $978M / $313M
- Post-quarter debt raise
- $1.75B senior notes priced 2026-07-28: $1.15B at 5.550% due 2036, $600M at 6.150% due 2056
Growth drivers
- Natural-gas-fired power demand for AI/data-center load growth — a structural new demand vector across the southern U.S. growth corridors
- LNG export feedgas — pipeline capacity to Gulf Coast liquefaction facilities
- $10.1B project backlog (Q1 2026), ~92% natural gas, ~60% tied to power generation and LDC demand
- Project sanctioning cadence — a meaningful share of projects under development expected to be sanctioned in 2026
- Inflation-linked and take-or-pay tariff escalators on regulated interstate pipes
- Contracted expansions on Transco-competing and Permian/Haynesville egress corridors
Reported financials — SEC EDGAR
Audited GAAP figures pulled from SEC filings · latest filing 2026-02-13. The audited primary-source spine — not financial advice.
Revenue — annual (GAAP)
Margins & balance sheet — FY’25
Bull & bear
The Q2 2026 print is the cleanest evidence yet that KMI's gas-infrastructure thesis is converting to cash, not just narrative: adj. EBITDA +12%, adj. EPS +32%, leverage down to 3.6x (a full 0.2x below the year-end budget) and the FY outlook raised twice in two quarters — all while the backlog is being executed, with ~$660M of projects placed in service in the quarter.
- Earnings quality improved, not just headline growth: net income $867M (+21%) is an all-time Q2 record, and all four segments grew Adjusted Segment EBDA y/y — this is not a single-segment or single-weather effect
- Deleveraging while spending: net debt/adj. EBITDA fell to 3.6x from 3.8x, at the low end of the target range, even as capex rose to $982M in the quarter — LTM adj. EBITDA is now $9.0B vs the $8.6B FY budget
- Guidance raised again — now >5% above the adj. EBITDA budget and >12% above the adj. EPS budget, versus >3% after Q1; the FY2026 adj. EPS run-rate implies ~$1.52, i.e. ~20.7x earnings at $31.40 (derived), reasonable for the growth now visible
- Volume data corroborates the demand story rather than relying on it: gas transport volumes +7% y/y on LNG deliveries, Mexico exports and Arizona power-gen load; gathering volumes +26% y/y
- The backlog fell to $9.6B for the RIGHT reason — ~$660M of projects were commissioned into the base business (Cumberland serving a new TVA gas plant, Gulf Coast Express expansion, Hiland Express), with the remaining $8.5B carrying a ~5.6x first-full-year Project EBITDA build multiple, far better than the 10-12x typical for acquisitions
- Self-funded growth: $1,960M of operating cash flow covered $982M of capex and the $665M dividend with $313M left over, so the backlog does not require equity issuance
- Large permitted projects are moving: FERC issued the Final EIS on 2026-06-26 for both SSE4 (~$3.5B gross, ~$1.8B KM-share) and Mississippi Crossing (~$1.7B), plus almost $400M of newly contingently approved projects that are not yet in the backlog
Strip out the beat and KMI is still a ~3.8%-yield, ~11.3x-EV/EBITDA levered toll road whose capital intensity is climbing faster than its revenue, whose dividend eats two-thirds of free cash flow, and which is now issuing 30-year paper at 6.15% — a cost of capital that quietly compresses the spread on the very backlog the bull case is priced on.
- Capex intensity jumped to 21.9% of revenue in Q2 2026 from 16.0% a year earlier (derived), and FCF actually FELL y/y ($978M vs $1,002M) despite adj. EBITDA rising 12% — growth is being bought, not compounded
- The dividend consumed ~68% of Q2 FCF ($665M of $978M), and it grew only 2% y/y ($0.2975 vs $0.2925) while adj. EPS grew 32% — shareholders are not receiving the upside in cash, and the payout leaves thin cover for a capex step-up
- Cost of capital is visibly rising: the post-quarter 2026-07-28 raise priced $1.15B at 5.550% (2036) and $600M at 6.150% (2056). New backlog returns must clear a materially higher hurdle than the legacy debt stack implies
- Net debt still GREW in absolute terms ($31,716M to $32,027M) — the 3.8x-to-3.6x improvement is EBITDA-driven, not debt-reduction-driven, so the leverage gain reverses if EBITDA growth stalls
- The backlog shrank $500M q/q to $9.6B, and only ~$200M of new projects were added against ~$650M+ placed in service — replacement is running well below burn-off, so the multi-year growth runway is not yet being refilled at pace
- The remaining growth leans on two very large, permit-dependent projects (SSE4 and MSX). FERC's Final EIS is only a step; the actual certificate orders, appeals and construction risk still sit between the backlog and the EBITDA
- CO2 segment EBDA was up $62M y/y almost entirely on higher commodity prices and volumes (realized oil $73.78/Bbl vs $67.60) — that is cyclical, not fee-based, and 2026-2028 hedges are struck lower ($64.54 / $63.92 / $67.28), so this tailwind is contractually capped
- Risk-management (unsettled derivative) Certain Items of $(83)M in the quarter mean GAAP EPS $0.39 exceeded adj. EPS $0.37 — the GAAP 'record' flatters the underlying result
What it is worth
Yield + EV/EBITDA + DCF-multiple triangulation for a fee-based midstream C-corp
Rate pressure and/or a softening gas-demand narrative compress the multiple back toward a >4.5% yield, capping or reducing price; growth disappoints if backlog sanctioning slips or CO2/EOR drags.
~$32 area
~3.7% yield, EPS/EBITDA growing mid-single-digits per guidance (FY2026 adj. EPS $1.36, adj. EBITDA $8.6B); total return ~ yield + ~5% growth.
Multiple re-rates higher and dividend compounds as the LNG + data-center gas-demand backlog converts to EBITDA faster than guided; total return led by ~3.7% yield + high-single-digit growth. A sustained sub-3.5% yield would imply meaningful price upside from ~$32.
At ~$70.6B market cap and ~$8.4-8.6B adj. EBITDA, KMI trades around ~11-12x EV/EBITDA (including ~$31-33B net debt, EV ~$102-104B) — roughly in line with large-cap midstream peers. The equity is primarily valued on its ~3.7% covered dividend yield plus mid-single-digit growth and backlog optionality. Not financial advice.
SWOT
Strengths
- One of the largest natural-gas transmission footprints in North America (~66,000 miles), moving a large share of U.S. gas consumption
- ~two-thirds fee-based/take-or-pay cash flow — defensive, largely insulated from commodity price swings
- Directly levered to two secular demand vectors at once: LNG export growth and data-center/AI power load
- Strong, well-covered ~3.7% dividend with a nine-year consecutive-raise track record
- Deep, high-return project backlog ($10.1B at ~5.6x build multiple) that is self-funding growth
Weaknesses
- Capital-intensive — growth depends on continuously sanctioning new large projects, absorbing execution and permitting risk
- Elevated leverage (~3.8x net debt/EBITDA) makes the equity rate-sensitive
- CO2/EOR segment retains genuine commodity-price and volume exposure, unlike the fee-based core
- Modest ~5% underlying per-share growth (FY2026 adj. EPS guide) — a yield-and-slow-compounding profile, not a high-grower
- Reported revenue is noisy (commodity pass-through), obscuring the cleaner fee-margin story for casual readers
Opportunities
- AI/data-center power buildout driving structural new gas-fired generation demand along KMI corridors
- Second-wave U.S. Gulf Coast LNG projects needing incremental feedgas pipeline capacity
- Permian and Haynesville production growth requiring more egress capacity
- Repowering coal-to-gas and grid-reliability gas peakers
- Potential accretive bolt-on acquisitions given scale and cost of capital (e.g., recent Monument acquisition)
Threats
- A durable energy-transition / electrification acceleration eroding long-run gas demand
- Interest-rate regime — higher-for-longer rates pressure high-yield infrastructure equity valuations and refinancing cost
- Permitting, pipeline-siting, and eminent-domain / regulatory opposition delaying projects
- Commodity-price and volume weakness hitting the CO2/EOR segment
- Competition from Williams, Energy Transfer, ONEOK and others for the same power/LNG expansion contracts
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
Long-lived pipeline rights-of-way and interconnected transmission systems are effectively impossible to replicate — permitting and siting a competing greenfield line is prohibitive.
~66,000 miles of gas pipe with connectivity to LNG terminals, LDCs, power plants and producing basins creates network effects and switching costs for shippers.
Multi-year capacity reservations lock in cash flow regardless of throughput, insulating the core from commodity cycles.
FERC-regulated interstate rates provide predictable, inflation-linked returns on the transmission base.
Dependencies
End-market demand The entire growth thesis and backlog depend on structural gas demand from LNG and data-center power holding up.
Supply / throughput Volumes depend on upstream production activity feeding the pipes.
Capital-intensive growth and ~$31-33B net debt require ongoing access to reasonably priced debt; rate moves hit refinancing and equity valuation.
Project sanctioning, siting, and tariff rate cases are subject to federal/state regulatory approval and opposition.
Data-center gas-demand backlog depends on power buyers choosing gas over renewables/nuclear/behind-the-meter.
Advantages
- Largest-scale U.S. natural gas transmission footprint — hard to displace
- Fee-based cash flow (~two-thirds) delivers defensiveness rare among energy equities
- Simultaneous exposure to LNG export and AI/data-center power — two independent secular tailwinds
- High-return backlog ($10.1B at ~5.6x build multiple) self-funds visible growth
- C-corp structure (issues 1099, not K-1) broadens the investor base vs. MLP peers
Weaknesses
- Low organic growth rate (~5% per share)
- Elevated, capital-structure-dependent leverage
- CO2/EOR commodity exposure dilutes the clean fee-based story
- Perpetual heavy capex suppresses net free cash flow after growth spend
- Rate-sensitive equity — behaves partly like a bond proxy
Bottlenecks
- Permitting and siting timelines for new interstate pipeline capacity
- Growth capped by the pace at which high-return projects can be sanctioned and built
- Balance-sheet capacity — leverage discipline (~3.8x target) limits how aggressively KMI can fund growth
- Skilled-labor and long-lead-equipment availability for large construction projects
- Regulatory rate-case and legal/opposition risk on major expansions
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Operating momentum plus weather tailwind; suggests upside to the $8.6B FY2026 guide.
Confirms the data-center/power gas-demand thesis is converting into contracted projects.
Growth remains mid-single-digit — this is a yield-plus-modest-growth story, not a compounder.
Bullish (income) · Attractive, sustainable income with continued-raise posture.
Bearish (risk) · Caps multiple expansion and raises refinancing sensitivity, though trending to ~3.7x on EBITDA outperformance.
Trends
Structural new demand vector directly in KMI's corridors; the single biggest reason the backlog is growing.
More Gulf Coast liquefaction needs feedgas pipeline capacity — durable multi-year tailwind.
Negative (long-duration) · The primary terminal-demand threat if electrification + storage displaces gas faster than expected.
Pressures high-yield infrastructure valuations and raises the cost of KMI's capital-intensive growth.
Incremental industrial and power gas demand supports throughput.
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Permian / Haynesville / Eagle Ford gas producers Upstream E&Ps whose production supplies KMI's pipeline throughput.
Long-lead materials and turbomachinery for construction projects.
Engineering and construction firms building the backlog.
Feedgas transport customer driving LNG-linked demand; representative of the Gulf Coast liquefaction buyer base.
Gas-fired power generators — the fastest-growing demand segment (data-center load).
Regulated gas utilities buying firm transmission capacity.
Indirect but pivotal demand source via new gas-fired generation contracts.
Products-pipeline and terminals customers.
Closest pure natural-gas-transmission peer (Transco, NW Pipeline); similar large-cap scale, more gas-concentrated than KMI's diversified mix.
Largest diversified midstream MLP; competes across NGLs, gas, and Gulf Coast infrastructure. Strong balance sheet.
Large diversified MLP with gas, NGL, crude and LNG-export ambitions; direct competitor for expansion contracts.
~60,000-mile network across gas, NGLs, crude, refined products; faster dividend-growth profile, frequently pitched as a higher-growth alternative to KMI.
Largest North American energy-infrastructure company; overlaps in gas transmission and increasingly gas utilities/LNG.
Permian-focused gathering/processing and NGLs; higher-growth midstream competing for basin volumes.
Major North American gas transmission (incl. cross-border pipes); competes on interstate gas capacity.