Reflection AI
ConvictionModerate
Pre-revenue-stage open-weights frontier lab; intended monetization via enterprise/sovereign deployment of open-weight models (API + self-host/licensing) — not yet disclosed or proven. Currently capital- and compute-funded (venture equity + strategic Nvidia investment).
Revenue
not disclosedprivate; pre-flagship-model, revenue is not publicly reported and is believed minimalRev growth
not disclosedGross margin
not disclosedOp margin
not disclosedloss-making; funded by venture + strategic capitalCapex intensity
very high relative to revenue — compute is contractualnot owned: SpaceX/Colossus 2 ~$6.3B over 3yr ($150M/mo from Jul-2026) with immediate Nvidia GB300 accessValuation
~$8B post-money at last priced roundOct 2025, $2B raise); reportedly raising ~$2.5B at a ~$25B valuation in 2026 (unpriced/in-progress, not confirmed closedAcross the boards
The thesis on this name
subject
Scaling the AI Cloud
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Earnings, margins & COGS, the income-statement breakdown, SWOT, moats & dependencies, the supplier–customer ecosystem graph, top signals & trends, and the valuation range.
- Income statement & margin structure
- SWOT, moats & dependency map
- Supplier–customer ecosystem graph
- Signals, trends & valuation range
Not investment advice — analyst work product for a qualified professional.· intel vintage Jul 2026· sign in (free) for the analyst summary; Pro unlocks full intelligence