Symbotic
Sells large automation systems (robots, racking structure and software) to distribution-centre operators under multi-year master agreements; systems revenue (93% of Q3 FY2026 revenue, derived from the release) is recognised over the roughly ten-month install-to-acceptance cycle, then each operational site pays recurring software maintenance and operation-services fees. Customers prepay at contract inception, so deferred revenue ($1.55B current at June 27, 2026, 10-Q) finances working capital. The Exol warehouse-as-a-service venture (35% Symbotic / 65% SoftBank) buys systems and rents capacity to shippers.
Sources — 33 figures with citations
- Q3 FY2026 total revenue and growthfiled2026-06-27$720,838K, up 22% from $592,121Ksec.gov — 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 FY2026 earnings release dated Aug 5, 2026; systems $670,952K, software maintenance and support $12,765K, operation services $37,121K
- Q3 FY2026 gross margin, adjusted gross margin, operating income, net income, EPS, adjusted EBITDAfiled2026-06-2722.3% GAAP gross margin; 25.0% adjusted; operating income $32,895K; net income $55,000K; diluted EPS $0.09; adjusted EBITDA $95,237Ksec.gov — Same release; adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.2% is derived
- Q3 FY2026 cash, operating cash flow, free cash flow; nine-month totalsfiled2026-06-27Cash $1,746,446K; operating cash flow -$147,297K; free cash flow -$164,630K; nine-month revenue $2,027,303K, net income $77,787K, free cash flow $242,831K, adjusted EBITDA $239,885Ksec.gov — No debt line on the balance sheet; total equity $1,133,966K
- Q4 FY2026 guidancefiled2026-08-05Revenue $760M-$780M; adjusted EBITDA $100M-$105Msec.gov — Guidance for the quarter ended Sep 26, 2026; the report had not been published as of Nov 13, 2026
- Walmart (Customer A) share of revenue and receivablesfiled2026-06-2790.5% of revenue in Q3 FY2026 (83.8% in Q3 FY2025); 87.0% for the nine months (85.1% prior year); 82.8% of accounts receivablesec.gov — 10-Q concentration note; the filing labels the customer 'Customer A' and separately identifies Walmart as the substantial majority of remaining performance obligations
- Backlog (remaining performance obligations) and Exol portionfiled2026-06-27$22.5B total; $11.6B relating to Exolsec.gov — 10-Q Notes 4 and 14; about 15% expected to convert within twelve months per the Q3 call
- Systems in deployment and operationalfiled2026-06-2777 in deployment (46 a year earlier); 56 operational systems under software maintenance (42 a year earlier)sec.gov — 10-Q MD&A; 11 starts and 4 completions in the quarter per the Q3 call
- Internal controls statusfiled2026-06-27Disclosure controls not effective; material weakness over timing of cost-of-revenue recognition unremediated as of June 27, 2026; long-term ERP solution planned for fiscal 2027sec.gov — 10-Q Item 4; class-action motion to dismiss granted in part and denied in part on July 23, 2026 (Note 15)
- Exol equity-method investment and commitmentsfiled2026-06-27Carrying value $140,468K; future funding commitments $1,487.9M; maximum exposure to loss $1,491.3M; equity-method loss $9,631K in the quarter and $22,375K year to datesec.gov — 10-Q related-party and VIE disclosures
- Shares outstanding by classfiled2026-08-03Class A 129,873,381; Class V-1 71,369,131; Class V-3 403,559,196 (total 604.8M, derived)sec.gov — 10-Q cover page; December 2025 offering of 8,000,000 Class A shares raised $424,308K net
- Walmart Enterprise Master Automation Agreementfiled2026-10-29Initial additional spend of about $6B over several years; could increase future backlog by up to $6,920,000,000; $125M development programme addendum for next-generation racking; director-nomination right while Walmart holds more than 5% fully diluted; two non-voting observers if Walmart exceeds 50% of trailing four-quarter revenue; Walmart may terminate on certain change-of-control transactionssec.gov — 8-K Item 1.01; the 2022 and 2025 master automation agreements remain in effect
- Walmart agreement scope per press releasefiled2026-10-29Automation expansion to 25 U.S. regional distribution centres plus additional opportunities across Walmart's global supply chainsec.gov — 8-K exhibit 99.1; quotes from Rick Cohen and Walmart's Rob Montgomery
- Fiscal 2025 revenue, margins, loss, adjusted EBITDA, cash flowfiled2025-09-27Revenue $2,246,922K (+26%); gross margin 18.8%; adjusted gross margin 21.0%; operating loss $115,006K; net loss $91,032K; adjusted EBITDA $147,457K; operating cash flow $866,939K; capex $79,030K; free cash flow $787,909K; cash $1,244,993Ksec.gov — Q4 FY2025 earnings release; Q4 revenue $618,457K, net loss $19,148K, adjusted EBITDA $49,442K
- Fiscal 2025 10-K disclosuresfiled2025-09-27Walmart about 85% of revenue; backlog $22.5B including $11.6B for GreenBox, about 12% expected in fiscal 2026; 50 systems in deployment and 48 operational; about 2,000 employees; Walmart beneficial ownership about 13%; GreenBox commitment of at least $7.5B over six years with initial term to July 23, 2027; fiscal 2024 revenue $1,788,179Ksec.gov — Also: Grant Thornton concluded internal control over financial reporting was not effective (material weakness over timing of cost-of-revenue recognition); remediation costs $8,406K; 2025 Walmart MAA for 400 micro-fulfilment systems with $520M Walmart-funded development and $175M plus $175M contingent payments by Symbotic
- Q2 FY2026 resultsfiled2026-03-28Revenue $676,480K (+23%); gross margin 22.2%; adjusted gross margin 24.5%; net income $9,429K; diluted EPS $0.01; adjusted EBITDA $77,753K; free cash flow $217,973K; cash $2,009,435Ksec.gov — Q3 guidance in the same release: revenue $700M-$720M, adjusted EBITDA $80M-$85M; 70 systems in deployment
- Q1 FY2026 resultsfiled2025-12-27Revenue $629,985K (+29%); gross margin 21.2%; adjusted gross margin 23.4%; net income $13,358K; EPS $0.02; adjusted EBITDA $66,903K; free cash flow $189,488K; cash $1,819,102Ksec.gov — Q2 guidance in the same release: revenue $650M-$670M, adjusted EBITDA $70M-$75M
- Fiscal 2024 restatementfiled2024-11-27System revenue, gross profit, pre-tax income and adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2024 reduced by $30M-$40M versus the Nov 18, 2024 release; errors in timing of milestone-related costs and in cost overruns that would not be billable; material weaknesses identified; 10-K delayed; Q1 FY2025 guidance cut to $480M-$500M revenue and $12M-$16M adjusted EBITDAsec.gov — 8-K/A exhibit 99.1
- Walmart ownershipfiled2026-08-0515,000,000 Class A shares plus 61,350,823 exchangeable OpCo units = 76,350,823 shares, 39.9% of Class A; about 12.6% of total common stock and about 5.4% of voting powersecform4.com — Schedule 13D/A filed Aug 7, 2026; holdings unchanged since Amendment No. 2
- Share price and market capmarket2026-11-12$35.44 close (-4.50%); market cap $21.43B; 604.80M shares; 52-week range $33.17-$87.88; forward P/E 53.0; next earnings date listed Nov 23, 2026stockanalysis.com — Market cap shown down 48.7% over twelve months; TTM revenue $2.65B
- Analyst consensus and estimatesmarket2026-11-1119 analysts, Buy; targets low $35, average $59.84, median $62.50, high $85; FY2026 revenue $2.80B (+24.5%), FY2027 $3.61B (+28.9%); non-GAAP EPS $0.57 FY2026 and $0.73 FY2027stockanalysis.com — Recent actions: Jefferies Hold $35 (Nov 11), Baird Hold $51 to $43 (Nov 2), TD Cowen Buy $75 to $70 (Oct 22), Citi Buy $70 (Oct 12), Needham Buy $75 to $60 (Sep 15)
- Daily closes around the Walmart agreementmarket2026-11-12Oct 28 $38.97; Oct 29 $37.40; Oct 30 $37.93; Nov 5 $35.04; Nov 12 $35.44; highest close in the Sep 3-Nov 12 window $45.07 on Sep 22stockanalysis.com — The 4.0% fall on Oct 29 and the 21% fall from Sep 22 to Nov 12 are derived
- Q3 FY2026 call: deployments, backlog bridge, Walmart store programme, Exol, guidance colourfiled2026-08-0511 starts, 4 systems operational (56 total), 77 in deployment; backlog $22.5B with about 15% converting in twelve months and excluding the 400-unit Walmart store contract; store order impact 'probably until early 28'; micro-fulfilment revenue high-single-digit millions; BreakPack at half of Walmart's regional DCs; Exol Atlanta live, Lathrop (C&S) live in 60-90 days; roughly $19M Nyobolt gain; capex about $17M; next-generation structure inflection second half of fiscal 2027webull.com — Third-party transcript of the company's call; humanoid robots and tariffs were not discussed
- Q1 FY2026 call: deployments, APD, Fox Robotics, technologyfiled2026-02-0410 starts, 3 completions, 57 in deployment; backlog $22.3B; 19 Walmart stores' first-generation systems upgraded, second-generation design funded by Walmart, two installs expected within twelve months; Fox Robotics closed with about 25 mostly pilot customers; bots carry eight cameras with LiDAR being added; 'physical AI' framing; chips 'plenty available'fool.com — Third-party transcript; no humanoid mention
- Q2 FY2026 call: deployments, backlog drivers, productsfiled2026-05-0614 starts, 1 completion (Exol Atlanta, under ten months install to acceptance), 70 in deployment; backlog $22.7B up from $22.3B with about $1B gross adds and one AWG system; Walmart ordered 40 BreakPack units per site; Nyobolt batteries about 5x energy per charge; long-term systems margin target 30%-plus; capex $20-25M a quarterfool.com — Third-party transcript
- Operating scale, calendar 2025filed2026-05-122.23 billion cases processed; fleet of 22,000 autonomous mobile robots; more than 200 million miles travelled in 2025; over 330 million lifetime miles; miles per bot per day up more than 20%, cases per bot per day up 9%symbotic.com — Company press release branding the platform 'physical AI'; no humanoid statements
- Exol launch and footprintmarket2026-04-09Formerly GreenBox Systems; backed by a $7.5B commitment from SoftBank and Symbotic; 1M sq ft Atlanta facility open (over 1M pallets, 30M cases, nearly 10M parcels a year); first California site sold out; Los Angeles, Dallas, New Jersey and Chicago planned within twelve months; six sites and about six million square feet in totalrobotics247.com — Trade press coverage of MODEX 2026; capacity claims are the company's own
- December 2025 equity offeringmarket2025-12-3110 million shares priced at $55 (Symbotic 6.5 million base plus SoftBank 3.5 million); stock fell 29% in December 2025 after trading above $85 on Dec 1 and just under $73 on Dec 3; SoftBank held nearly 40 million shares at Sep 30, 2025fool.com — Press; the 10-Q records 8,000,000 Class A shares issued for $424,308K net, implying the over-allotment was exercised (derived)
- Fox Robotics acquisitionmarket2026-02-12Austin-based autonomous forklift maker founded 2017; 100+ FoxBots at 54 customer sites in the U.S. and Canada; Walmart rolled out 19 FoxBots across four DCs after a 16-month pilot; price not disclosedautomatedwarehouseonline.com — Trade press; CEO: 'we can sell guided fork trucks to a lot more people than we can sell a Symbotic system to'
- CEO on humanoid robots versus whole-system automationmarket2026-05-05'There are humanoid robots that do just picking; there are mobile robots that might move pallets around the building' versus Symbotic's aim to 'create a whole solution'; over 1,000 patents issued or pending; Walmart and Target named as clientsmagazine.wharton.upenn.edu — Wharton Magazine interview with Rick Cohen
- Q3 FY2026 EPS versus consensusmarket2026-08-05EPS missed expectations by $0.04 (reported $0.09)marketbeat.com — Press headline figure; consensus about $0.13 (derived)
- Q2 FY2026 market reactionmarket2026-05-12Revenue $676.5M beat consensus by 2.4%; stock down 15.5% between the May 6 release and May 12, 2026; Q3 guide midpoint $710M versus a $713.8M consensus; adjusted EBITDA margin up 521 basis points to 11.5%metatrader.com — Zacks article republished; its EPS and backlog-unit figures differ from the release, which takes precedence
- Walmart share of revenue, press citing the 10-Qmarket2026-10-2890.5% in the quarter ended June 27, 2026; Exol $11.6B of the $22.5B backlogtherobotreport.com — The Robot Report, Deepak Jayaraj; corroborates the 10-Q figures above
- CTO appointmentmarket2025-01-07James Kuffner, co-founder of Google's robotics unit (2013) and more than nine years at Toyota, named chief technology officer, replacing George Dramalistherobotreport.com — Relevant to the embodied-AI capability question; no humanoid roadmap stated
The thesis on this name
State of Physical AI
The 'robotics that already ships revenue' name — Q2-26 rev $676M, 2,600+ stores, and a deepened Walmart relationship (Walmart ~12.6% owner; $520M of Walmart-funded development alongside the Jan 2025 purchase of Walmart's Advanced Systems and Robotics business). Deployed-automation cash flow today, with a credible path to embodied-AI/humanoid-adjacent warehouse autonomy. Provides real-earnings ballast in a sleeve dominated by pre-revenue optionality. Checked Nov 13 2026: Q3 FY2026 revenue $720.8M (+22%), adjusted EBITDA $95.2M (doubled year over year), backlog $22.5B (the Exol/GreenBox venture $11.6B of it) and a new Walmart Enterprise Master Automation Agreement on Oct 29 2026 (~$6B of spend, up to $6.92B of backlog) — the ballast thesis holds, with Walmart at 90.5% of Q3 revenue and the cost-of-revenue material weakness still open at Jun 27 2026 (Q3 FY2026 release and 10-Q).
State of Physical AI
Deployed-automation cash flow today (2,600+ stores, deepened Walmart) — real-earnings ballast against a pre-revenue humanoid sleeve.
State of Physical AI
The 'robotics that already ships revenue' anchor — Q2-26 rev $676M, 2,600+ stores, deepened Walmart tie (Walmart $520M stake + acquired Walmart's robotics unit). Provides a real-cash-flow ballast against the pre-revenue humanoid sleeve; Walmart customer-concentration is the offsetting risk.
Earnings, margins, COGS & capex
Fiscal 2026 has been a year of profit inflection on a slower-growing top line. Revenue rose from $630.0M in Q1 to $676.5M in Q2 and $720.8M in Q3 (facts, 8-K releases), growth decelerating from 29% to 23% to 22% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA climbed from $66.9M to $77.8M to $95.2M and the adjusted gross margin from 23.4% to 24.5% to 25.0%. GAAP net income has been positive each quarter ($13.4M, $9.4M, $55.0M; Q3 includes a roughly $19M unrealised gain on the Nyobolt battery investment, Q3 call). Nine-month revenue of $2,027.3M plus the Q4 guide of $760-780M implies fiscal 2026 revenue of about $2.79-2.81B (derived), in line with the $2.80B consensus. Cash generation is lumpy because customers prepay at project start: fiscal 2025 free cash flow was $787.9M on $2,246.9M of revenue, but Q3 FY2026 free cash flow was -$164.6M, which management attributed to receipts landing about a week late and project-activity timing, guiding to positive free cash flow in Q4 and for the full year (Q3 call). Walmart supplied 90.5% of Q3 FY2026 revenue (10-Q), and the $22.5B backlog (10-Q) excludes both the contingent 400-store Walmart order and the roughly $6B Walmart commitment signed Oct 29, 2026 (8-K).
Income statement — where each revenue dollar goes
% of revenueOf every $1 of revenue, ~78¢ is cost of goods and ~18¢ operating expense, leaving ~5¢ of operating profit.
Revenue trend
Margins
Rising on project execution, cost discipline and scale; partly offset by tariff expense and, over nine months, higher warranty cost (10-Q). Management expects it to stabilise near Q2-Q3 levels until the next-generation storage structure ramps in the second half of fiscal 2027 (Q3 call).
Up about 400 basis points in a year; long-term systems margin target of 30%-plus once next-generation systems dominate installs (Q2 call)
High-margin recurring line growing 57% year on year in Q3 (release) as operational systems rose to 56 (10-Q); still only 1.8% of revenue (derived)
Turned positive; revenue +49% year on year in Q3 (Q3 call)
Roughly doubled year on year; guided roughly flat sequentially in Q4 FY2026 at about 13% ($100-105M on $760-780M, derived)
First sustained operating profits; R&D $43.8M and SG&A $84.2M in Q3 (release) are growing more slowly than revenue
COGS structure
Cost of revenue was $559.9M in Q3 FY2026 (derived as revenue $720.8M less gross profit $160.9M). The bulk is systems cost: contract-manufactured robots, lifts, conveyors and racking bought from a wide range of vendors, plus installation labour at customer sites (10-K: about half of the roughly 2,000 employees work at customer sites, per The Robot Report citing the annual report). Steel price increases are in most cases passed on to the customer (10-K), but the 10-Q says increased tariff expense partly offset systems gross-profit gains in fiscal 2026. The fiscal 2024 restatement arose in this line: costs were expensed before milestones were reached, pulling percentage-of-completion revenue forward, and cost overruns that would not be billable were mis-recognised (8-K/A, Nov 27, 2024); as of June 27, 2026 the material weakness over the timing of cost-of-revenue recognition remained open (10-Q).
Capex
Capital spending is small relative to revenue: $79.0M in fiscal 2025 (3.5% of revenue, derived from the Q4 FY2025 release), $2.1M in Q1 FY2026, $43.4M in Q2 and about $17M in Q3 (releases and Q3 call), mostly supplier-capacity investment and capitalised internal-use software; management guided to $20-25M a quarter (Q2 call). Separately, Symbotic funds its 35% share of Exol: the equity-method investment stood at $140.5M at June 27, 2026 with future funding commitments of $1,487.9M and maximum exposure to loss of $1,491.3M (10-Q). Fiscal 2025 investing outflow was $350.7M including strategic investments (10-K).
Latest earnings
Revenue of $720.8M landed at the top of the $700-720M guide and adjusted EBITDA of $95.2M beat the $80-85M guide (facts, Q2 and Q3 releases), but GAAP EPS of $0.09 missed the roughly $0.13 consensus by $0.04 (MarketBeat, Aug 5, 2026) and free cash flow was negative. The same pattern held in Q2 FY2026: revenue $676.5M beat consensus by 2.4% (Zacks via MetaTrader, May 12, 2026) and adjusted EBITDA of $77.8M beat the $70-75M guide, yet the stock fell 15.5% in the days after the May 6 release (same source). Q1 FY2026 revenue of $630.0M was at the top of the $610-630M guide and adjusted EBITDA of $66.9M beat the $49-53M guide (Q4 FY2025 and Q1 FY2026 releases).
Q4 FY2026: revenue $760-780M and adjusted EBITDA $100-105M, with the adjusted EBITDA margin roughly flat sequentially, system starts a little short of Q3's eleven, and positive free cash flow for the quarter and the year (Q3 release and call). Management's 'real inflection point' for the next-generation storage structure is the second half of fiscal 2027 (Q3 call). The Walmart store (micro-fulfilment) order is not expected to affect results until early 2028 (Q3 call). No fiscal 2027 numeric guidance has been given; consensus is $3.61B revenue and $0.73 non-GAAP EPS (stockanalysis.com).
- Backlog (remaining performance obligations), June 27, 2026
- $22.5B, of which Exol $11.6B (10-Q); Walmart and Exol make up the vast majority (10-Q); excludes the contingent 400-store Walmart order (Q3 call) and the Oct 29, 2026 Walmart commitment of up to $6.92B (8-K)
- Systems in deployment / operational, June 27, 2026
- 77 in deployment (46 a year earlier); 56 operational under software maintenance (42 a year earlier) (10-Q)
- System starts / completions
- Q1 FY2026: 10 starts, 3 completions; Q2: 14 starts, 1 completion; Q3: 11 starts, 4 completions (Q1-Q3 calls)
- Walmart share of revenue
- 90.5% in Q3 FY2026 (83.8% a year earlier); 87.0% for the nine months (85.1% a year earlier); 82.8% of receivables (10-Q, Customer A); about 85% in fiscal 2025 (10-K)
- Cash and debt, June 27, 2026
- $1,746.4M cash, no debt (release); deferred revenue $1,553.7M current and $182.8M non-current (10-Q)
- Nine-month FY2026 totals
- Revenue $2,027.3M; net income $77.8M; adjusted EBITDA $239.9M; operating cash flow $305.6M; free cash flow $242.8M (release)
- Installed-base scale, calendar 2025
- 2.23 billion cases processed; 22,000 autonomous mobile robots; more than 200 million miles travelled (Symbotic release, May 12, 2026)
- Headcount
- About 2,000 full-time employees at Sep 27, 2025, about 1,950 in the U.S. (10-K)
Growth drivers
- Walmart build-out — the 2022 master agreement covers systems in all 42 Walmart U.S. regional distribution centres (10-Q) and the Oct 29, 2026 Enterprise Master Automation Agreement adds about $6B of committed spend covering automation expansion at 25 U.S. regional DCs plus Americas fulfilment centres, up to $6.92B of future backlog (8-K and press release)
- Backlog conversion — $22.5B at June 27, 2026 with about 15% expected to convert within twelve months (Q3 call); 77 systems in deployment versus 46 a year earlier (10-Q) after 10, 14 and 11 starts in Q1-Q3 FY2026 (calls)
- Exol (formerly GreenBox) warehouse-as-a-service — $11.6B of backlog (10-Q); Atlanta 1M sq ft site live with its first customer, Lathrop, California complete and due live within 60-90 days with C&S as customer, four more multi-client sites planned (Q3 call; Robotics 24/7, Apr 2026)
- Recurring revenue from the installed base — operational systems rose to 56 from 42 a year earlier (10-Q), lifting software maintenance revenue 57% and operation services 49% year on year in Q3 FY2026 (Q3 call)
- New products — BreakPack each-picking deployed at half of Walmart's regional DCs with 40 units ordered per site (Q2 and Q3 calls); SymMicro store-level micro-fulfilment prototype installing at a Walmart store (Q3 call); frozen/perishable prototypes expected within about six months (Q3 call); next-generation storage structure ramping in the second half of fiscal 2027 (Q3 call)
- Adjacent markets via acquisitions — Fox Robotics autonomous forklifts (100+ units at 54 sites; closed Q1 FY2026, price undisclosed), Box Robotics dock automation, ARMS Innovations maintenance software sold as a value-priced add-on (Q1 and Q3 calls; Automated Warehouse, Feb 2026)
- Non-Walmart wins — Southern Glazer's second site, one system for Associated Wholesale Grocers, Medline added to backlog, and two major retailers evaluating entry-level systems worth low tens of millions each (Q2-Q3 calls; Q4 FY2025 earnings call)
Bull & bear
The bull case is that Symbotic has crossed into durable profitability at the moment its largest customer doubled down: a $22.5B backlog plus up to $6.92B of fresh Walmart commitment underwrites 25-30% growth for years, adjusted EBITDA has doubled year on year, next-generation hardware lifts systems margins toward 30%, and Exol plus store-level micro-fulfilment open two new revenue pools, all while the stock trades near the Street's lowest target.
- Visibility: $22.5B backlog (10-Q) before adding the Oct 29, 2026 Walmart commitment of up to $6.92B (8-K); about 15% of backlog converts within twelve months (Q3 call), covering the $3.61B fiscal 2027 consensus (stockanalysis.com)
- Profit inflection is real: adjusted EBITDA rose from $147.5M in fiscal 2025 to $239.9M in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 with Q4 guided at $100-105M, implying about $340M for the year, more than double (derived from releases)
- Margin runway: adjusted gross margin went from 21.0% (fiscal 2025) to 25.0% (Q3 FY2026) and management targets 30%-plus systems margins as the next-generation structure ramps from the second half of fiscal 2027 (Q2 and Q3 calls)
- Walmart is deepening, not diversifying away: BreakPack at half of its regional DCs, 42 RDCs under agreement, 25 more RDC expansions and Americas fulfilment centres in the new agreement, and the contractual 400-store micro-fulfilment order with 200 optional (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, calls)
- Exol de-risks the non-Walmart story: $11.6B of backlog, Atlanta live with its first customer, Lathrop sold out with C&S, four more sites planned (10-Q; Q3 call; Robotics 24/7)
- Balance sheet and valuation: $1.75B cash, no debt (release); enterprise value about $19.7B is roughly 5.5x fiscal 2027 consensus revenue (derived), and the $35.44 price sits at the low end of analyst targets ($35 low, $59.84 average, $85 high; stockanalysis.com)
- Physical-AI platform credentials without humanoid risk: 22,000 bots, 200M+ miles in 2025 (release), eight cameras per bot and LiDAR rolling out (Q1 and Q3 calls), a CTO who co-founded Google's robotics unit (The Robot Report, Jan 2025)
The bear case is that Symbotic is a single-customer contractor with a still-defective control environment and a backlog that is half a SoftBank affiliate: Walmart is 90% of revenue and holds board rights, GAAP earnings have trailed consensus (Q3 FY2026 EPS $0.09 against about $0.13), cash swung to a $165M quarterly outflow, the 400-store order has slipped to 2028 and needs a redesign, and the company has already diluted holders once at $55 after the stock peaked near $88.
- Concentration is rising, not falling: Walmart went from 83.8% of revenue in Q3 FY2025 to 90.5% in Q3 FY2026 and is 82.8% of receivables (10-Q); the new agreement formalises Walmart's influence with a director nomination right and observers if it exceeds 50% of revenue (8-K)
- Controls still broken: disclosure controls 'not effective' and the cost-of-revenue timing material weakness unremediated at June 27, 2026, pending an ERP rollout in fiscal 2027 (10-Q); adverse auditor opinion on internal control for fiscal 2025 (10-K); the related class action partly survived dismissal on July 23, 2026 (10-Q)
- Earnings quality: Q3 net income of $55.0M included a roughly $19M unrealised investment gain (Q3 call); EPS of $0.09 missed consensus by $0.04 (MarketBeat) and the Q2 print, despite a revenue beat, sent the stock down 15.5% (Zacks via MetaTrader); stockanalysis.com shows the fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS consensus of $0.57 as a 71% decline from its $1.98 fiscal 2025 figure, a measurement-basis gap that keeps headline EPS comparisons noisy
- Cash is customer float: fiscal 2025's $787.9M free cash flow came from prepayments, and Q3 FY2026 reversed to -$164.6M (releases); deferred revenue of $1.55B (10-Q) is work still owed, not profit
- The growth story's second leg is deferred: the Walmart store order will not affect results until early 2028 and the current prototype will not be the version built at scale (Q3 call); micro-fulfilment revenue is only high-single-digit millions a quarter (Q3 call)
- Exol dependency: $11.6B of the $22.5B backlog is an entity Symbotic owns 35% of, has committed $1.49B of future funding to, and whose equity-method losses were $22.4M in nine months (10-Q); its purchase agreement's initial term ends July 23, 2027 (10-K)
- Dilution and selling: 8.0M shares issued at $55 in December 2025 while SoftBank sold 3.5M, and the stock fell 29% that month (10-Q; Motley Fool); a Jefferies initiation at Hold with a $35 target and Baird's cut to $43 (stockanalysis.com, Nov 2026) show the Street's floor is near the current price
What it is worth
Enterprise value to forward revenue cross-checked against EV to adjusted EBITDA and the Street's targets; a discounted-cash-flow is unreliable here because free cash flow is dominated by customer prepayment timing (fiscal 2025 +$787.9M, Q3 FY2026 -$164.6M). Enterprise value is market cap $21.43B less $1.75B cash with no debt, about $19.7B (derived from stockanalysis.com and the Q3 FY2026 release); per-share values use 604.8M shares.
About $21 per share: deployment completions stay at a handful a quarter, the Walmart store order slips beyond 2028, Exol funding or renewal falters after the July 2027 agreement term, fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.2B at 3.5x EV/sales as the stock is repriced as a single-customer contractor with an unresolved accounting history; EV $11.2B plus $1.75B cash over 604.8M shares (derived assumptions). The 52-week low of $33.17 (stockanalysis.com) shows the market has not yet tested this case.
About $39 per share: consensus fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.61B at 6x EV/sales, reflecting 25-29% growth with adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-teens, Walmart still above 80% of revenue and the material weakness remediated in fiscal 2027; EV $21.7B plus $1.75B cash over 604.8M shares (derived assumptions). Roughly the current price plus the cash-flow normalisation the Q4 print is meant to show.
About $59 per share: fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.8B (above the $3.61B consensus) as the up-to-$6.92B Walmart commitment is booked and Exol tenants sign, adjusted gross margin heading past 27% on the next-generation structure, and a 9x EV/sales multiple restored for a profitable 30% grower; EV $34.2B plus $1.75B cash over 604.8M shares (derived assumptions). Coincides with the Street average target of $59.84 (stockanalysis.com).
At $35.44 (Nov 12, 2026 close) the stock trades at about 7.0x fiscal 2026 consensus revenue of $2.80B and 5.5x fiscal 2027's $3.61B (derived); about 57x fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of roughly $340M (nine-month $239.9M plus the $100-105M Q4 guide, derived); and 53x forward earnings (stockanalysis.com). That prices in roughly 25-30% growth and a march toward 30% systems gross margins, but no longer a premium for the Walmart relationship: the price sits at the Street's lowest target ($35, Jefferies) and 41% below the $59.84 average (stockanalysis.com). The market is paying for conversion of the $22.5B backlog, not for new commitments, which is why the Oct 29, 2026 Walmart agreement moved the stock down 4% that day (derived from the price history). Key swing factors: whether Q4 FY2026 free cash flow turns positive as guided, whether the Walmart share of revenue stops rising, and whether completions accelerate beyond four a quarter.
SWOT
Strengths
- Anchor customer with committed multi-year spend — Walmart agreements cover all 42 U.S. regional DCs (10-Q) and the Oct 29, 2026 agreement adds about $6B, up to $6.92B of backlog (8-K); Walmart also owns about 12.6% of the company (13D/A, Aug 2026)
- Contracted visibility — $22.5B backlog equals about 8.5 years of trailing revenue (derived from $2.65B TTM), with roughly 15% converting in the next twelve months (Q3 call)
- Operating leverage now visible — adjusted EBITDA $95.2M in Q3 FY2026 versus $45.4M a year earlier on 22% revenue growth; adjusted gross margin 25.0% versus 21.0% for fiscal 2025 (releases)
- Customer-funded model — $1.55B of current deferred revenue (10-Q) and fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $787.9M (release) mean growth is financed by prepayments, not debt; $1.75B cash, no borrowings (release)
- Proven scale in production — 2.23 billion cases handled and 22,000 bots travelling over 200 million miles in 2025 (May 12, 2026 release); 56 operational systems (10-Q)
- Whole-building system rather than point solution — integrated storage structure, bots, software and BreakPack each-picking, with the next-generation structure targeted at 30%-plus systems margins (Q2 call)
Weaknesses
- Extreme customer concentration — Walmart was 90.5% of Q3 FY2026 revenue and 82.8% of receivables (10-Q), up from about 85% in fiscal 2025 (10-K); the new agreement even grants Walmart two board observers if it exceeds 50% of trailing revenue (8-K)
- Internal controls still not effective — the material weakness over timing of cost-of-revenue recognition that triggered the fiscal 2024 restatement remained unremediated at June 27, 2026, with an ERP replacement planned for fiscal 2027 (10-Q); Grant Thornton issued an adverse internal-control opinion for fiscal 2025 (10-K)
- Thin GAAP profitability and lumpy cash — Q3 FY2026 operating margin 4.6% (derived), free cash flow -$164.6M (release); fiscal 2025 was a $91.0M net loss with a $1.3B accumulated deficit (10-K)
- Slow, long deployment cycles — about two years from announcement to operational, roughly ten months from install start to acceptance (Q1 call); only 1, 3 and 4 completions in the last three quarters (calls)
- Dilutive and complex capital structure — 604.8M shares across Class A (129.9M), V-1 (71.4M) and V-3 (403.6M) (10-Q cover); 8.0M new Class A shares sold at $55 in December 2025 for $424.3M net (10-Q; Motley Fool) while SoftBank sold 3.5M alongside (Motley Fool)
- Half the backlog sits with a 35%-owned affiliate — Exol's $11.6B (10-Q) depends on SoftBank funding and on an agreement whose initial term expires July 23, 2027 (10-K); Symbotic carries $1.49B of future funding commitments to Exol (10-Q)
Opportunities
- Booking the Walmart Oct 2026 commitment (up to $6.92B, 8-K) would lift backlog toward about $29B (derived) and extends the relationship to Americas fulfilment centres and next-generation racking ($125M development addendum, 8-K)
- Store-level micro-fulfilment — Walmart is contractually required to buy 400 systems if prototypes meet performance metrics, with an option for 200 more (10-K); the first SymMicro install is under way (Q3 call), with revenue impact from early 2028
- Exol warehouse-as-a-service for shippers who cannot buy a system outright: six sites and about six million square feet planned, Atlanta able to ship over 1M pallets, 30M cases and nearly 10M parcels a year (Robotics 24/7, Apr 2026)
- Adjacent product lines with broader buyer pools — autonomous forklifts (Fox Robotics), dock automation (Box Robotics), maintenance software (ARMS) and perishables handling (Q1 and Q3 calls)
- Recurring software and services — operational systems up 33% year on year to 56 (10-Q); software maintenance revenue +57% in Q3 (Q3 call); each of Exol's $11.6B of system purchases (10-Q) would add maintenance and operation-services fees once operational
- Margin expansion from the next-generation storage structure in the second half of fiscal 2027 and falling sensor costs (LiDAR under $500 per unit versus about $5,000 four years ago, Q3 call)
Threats
- Walmart leverage — it can slow or re-sequence deployments, has redesign power over the 400-store order (management: 'probably will not build 400 of the version we are building now', Q3 call) and may terminate on a Symbotic change of control (8-K)
- Competing automation architectures — cube storage (AutoStore), grocery-specific robotic fulfilment (Ocado), integrators (Dematic, Honeywell Intelligrated, Daifuku) and in-house programmes (Amazon) compete for the same retailer capex
- Tariffs and steel — the 10-Q cites increased tariff expense partly offsetting gross-profit gains; the 10-K warns further tariffs could raise system costs that cannot be offset
- Litigation and disclosure overhang — the securities class action survived in part a motion to dismiss on July 23, 2026 and derivative suits are consolidated (10-Q); any new accounting error would hit a stock already discounted for the 2024 restatement
- SoftBank funding appetite — Exol is 65% SoftBank-owned; SoftBank sold 3.5M Symbotic shares in December 2025 (Motley Fool) and the $7.5B six-year purchase commitment's initial term runs to July 23, 2027 (10-K)
- Humanoid and embodied-AI entrants could offer cheaper, incremental automation; Symbotic has no humanoid programme and argues single-task humanoid pickers are not a whole-warehouse solution (Wharton Magazine, May 2026)
Moats, dependencies & bottlenecks
Moats
A Symbotic system is the building's storage structure, robots and warehouse software combined; once operational (56 sites, 10-Q) it is paid for over years and replacing it means re-racking the DC. Software maintenance revenue grew 57% year on year in Q3 FY2026 (Q3 call).
$22.5B of remaining performance obligations (10-Q) plus up to $6.92B more committed Oct 29, 2026 (8-K) lock in volume, but the same contracts give Walmart redesign and sequencing power and a termination right on change of control.
22,000 bots, 2.23 billion cases and 200M+ miles in 2025 (May 12, 2026 release) give a training corpus few rivals have; management says AI expense stays low because it uses in-house data and on-robot compute (Q3 call). Rivals with large fleets (Amazon, AutoStore) have comparable data in their own formats.
Over 1,000 patents issued or pending (Wharton Magazine, May 2026); the case-handling structure is distinctive, but cube-storage and shuttle architectures achieve similar outcomes with different IP.
Exol buys only Symbotic systems ($11.6B backlog, 10-Q), but it is 65% SoftBank-owned and its initial agreement term ends July 23, 2027 (10-K), so the channel is contractual rather than structural.
Dependencies
90.5% of Q3 FY2026 revenue and 82.8% of receivables (10-Q); about 12.6% owner with 15.0M Class A shares and 61.4M exchangeable units (13D/A, Aug 2026); board nomination and observer rights and a change-of-control termination right under the Oct 29, 2026 agreement (8-K).
$11.6B of backlog (10-Q); Symbotic's future funding commitments $1,487.9M and maximum exposure to loss $1,491.3M (10-Q); the at-least-$7.5B six-year purchase commitment's initial term expires July 23, 2027 (10-K).
Funds 65% of Exol; sold 3.5M Symbotic shares in the December 2025 offering (Motley Fool); its continued appetite determines whether Exol's site build-out and purchases proceed.
robots, conveyors, racking) Symbotic manufactures with third-party contract manufacturers and buys from a wide range of vendors (10-K); steel price rises are mostly passed through (10-K), but tariff expense partly offset gross-profit gains in fiscal 2026 (10-Q).
Strategic investment; batteries described as giving about five times the single-charge energy of current cells and planned for all new bots (Q2 call); produced a roughly $19M unrealised gain in Q3 FY2026 (Q3 call).
Bots carry eight cameras and LiDAR is being added; management says the chips needed are 'plenty available' and not data-centre-class AI chips (Q1 call); LiDAR unit cost has fallen to under $500 (Q3 call).
The 10-K says tariffs have raised commodity and raw-material costs and further tariffs could increase system costs that cannot be offset; the 10-Q records increased tariff expense in fiscal 2026.
Material weakness over cost-of-revenue timing open since the fiscal 2024 restatement; remediation now tied to a long-term ERP implementation in fiscal 2027 (10-Q); securities class action proceeding in part (10-Q).
Exol has partnered with Manhattan on software while Symbotic builds its own integration layer (Q3 call).
Advantages
- Only vendor with a full-building case-handling system running at Walmart scale: 42 RDCs under agreement (10-Q), 2.23 billion cases in 2025 (release)
- Customer prepayment model — $1.55B current deferred revenue (10-Q) funds builds; no debt and $1.75B cash (release)
- Fastest-growing high-margin lines are recurring — software maintenance about 73% gross margin and +57% growth, operation services +49% (derived from release; Q3 call)
- In-house physical-AI stack with low incremental AI cost (on-robot compute, own data) and falling sensor costs (Q3 call)
- Walmart co-investment aligns interests — about 12.6% ownership (13D/A) and $520M of Walmart-funded development for store systems, plus $125M for next-generation racking (10-K; 8-K)
- Acquisition engine into adjacent buyers — Fox Robotics forklifts can be sold 'to a lot more people than we can sell a Symbotic system to' (CEO, Automated Warehouse, Feb 2026); board added Steve Pagliuca for M&A experience (Q3 call)
Weaknesses
- 90.5% of revenue from one customer (10-Q)
- Unremediated material weakness and adverse internal-control opinion (10-Q; 10-K)
- GAAP operating margin 4.6% in Q3 FY2026 and a fiscal 2025 net loss of $91.0M (derived; 10-K)
- Quarterly free cash flow swings from +$218.0M (Q2) to -$164.6M (Q3) (releases)
- Half the backlog belongs to a 35%-owned affiliate with a 2027 agreement-term date (10-Q; 10-K)
- Stock down about 48.7% in market value over twelve months and 60% below its 52-week high (derived from stockanalysis.com)
Bottlenecks
- Deployment throughput — installs take about ten months from start to acceptance and about two years from announcement (Q1 call); only 1, 3 and 4 systems reached operational status in the last three quarters while starts ran 10-14 (calls), so systems in deployment keep piling up (77 at June 27, 2026, 10-Q)
- Walmart decision cadence — the 400-store micro-fulfilment order depends on prototypes meeting performance metrics (10-K) and a redesign, with results impact not before early 2028 (Q3 call)
- Exol site readiness and tenant sign-ups — Atlanta is live with one unnamed customer, Lathrop awaits go-live, and four more buildings need customers (Q3 call; Robotics 24/7)
- Finance systems — the material weakness is being fixed through process redesign and an ERP replacement in fiscal 2027 (10-Q), constraining how fast reporting can be trusted
- Working-capital timing — receipts arriving a week late turned Q3 FY2026 free cash flow to -$164.6M (release; Q3 call), so quarterly cash is hostage to project-start milestones
- Next-generation storage structure — the margin step-up is gated on its ramp in the second half of fiscal 2027 (Q3 call), so fiscal 2026-27 margins plateau near 25% adjusted
Top signals & trends
Top signals
Third-party calendars list Nov 23, 2026 (stockanalysis.com); watch revenue versus the $760-780M guide, whether free cash flow turned positive as promised, system starts versus Q3's eleven, and whether the Oct 29 Walmart commitment is booked into backlog.
Would lift backlog from $22.5B toward about $29B when booked (derived). The stock closed $37.40 that day versus $38.97 the day before (stockanalysis.com history), a muted reaction that suggests investors want conversion, not commitments.
10-Q customer concentration note. The new agreement grants Walmart two non-voting board observers if it exceeds 50% of trailing four-quarter revenue (8-K), institutionalising the dependence.
Q3 call. Gross adds in Q2 were about $1B before recognition (Q2 call). Conversion to EBITDA is improving: adjusted EBITDA margin 13.2% in Q3 versus 6.6% for fiscal 2025 (derived).
Q3 call and 10-Q. Starts are guided 'a little short' of eleven in Q4. Completions have run 1-4 a quarter; a step-up is needed for recurring software revenue to matter.
Q3 call; 10-K terms ($520M Walmart-funded development; Symbotic owes Walmart $175M on first-system acceptance and $175M more if Walmart takes the extra 200). Management said it probably will not build 400 of the current version, so the order depends on the next design.
10-Q; Q3 call; Robotics 24/7 (Apr 9, 2026); 10-K. Symbotic's future funding commitments to Exol are $1,487.9M (10-Q). Renewal or extension of the purchase agreement and named tenants are the tells.
10-Q Item 4. Fiscal 2025 remediation spend was $8.4M (10-K). Rooted in the Nov 2024 restatement that cut fiscal 2024 system revenue and adjusted EBITDA by $30-40M (8-K/A).
10-Q legal proceedings; class period Nov 20, 2023 to Feb 5, 2025 (10-K). Discovery and any settlement are fiscal 2027 events.
Releases and Q3 call. Nine-month free cash flow is still +$242.8M (release). The swing reflects prepayment timing on project starts rather than losses.
Releases, 10-Q, Q2 and Q3 calls. A plateau near 25% through fiscal 2027 is the base case; the stock reacts to any slip.
stockanalysis.com. The price ($35.44) is at the low target; hold-rated analysts rose to 6 from 5 in November.
stockanalysis.com; 10-Q; Motley Fool (Jan 8, 2026). Watch for further SoftBank or insider sales and for any new raise despite $1.75B cash.
Wharton Magazine (May 5, 2026); May 12, 2026 release; Q1 call ('physical AI', eight cameras per bot, LiDAR); Q3 call (AI agents for predictive maintenance, LiDAR on all bots within about two years, more than 1,000 larger bots deployed in calendar 2026). Humanoid vendors are a competitive watch item, not a Symbotic product line.
Q2 and Q3 calls; Q4 FY2025 earnings call. Each is small against Walmart, but entry-level systems and Fox forklifts (100+ units at 54 sites, Automated Warehouse) widen the funnel.
10-Q MD&A ('as tariff regulations continue to evolve'); 10-K risk factor. Steel is largely passed through (10-K), tariffs are not fully.
Releases; MarketBeat (Aug 5, 2026); Zacks via MetaTrader (May 12, 2026); 8-K/A (Nov 27, 2024). The market now prices execution risk into every print.
Trends
Walmart's spend escalated from the 2022 agreement (about $6.1B added to backlog, 10-K) to the Oct 2026 commitment of about $6B more (8-K); Southern Glazer's, AWG and Medline are following with single sites (calls; release).
Validates demand for robotic handling and Symbotic's own 'physical AI' branding (May 12, 2026 release), but humanoid pickers and mobile robots offer incremental alternatives to a whole-building rebuild; Symbotic has no humanoid product (Wharton Magazine; calls).
Exol offers Symbotic capacity without upfront capital or long 3PL contracts, with six U.S. sites and about six million square feet planned (Robotics 24/7, Apr 2026); it converts a capex sale into recurring usage.
Walmart's 400-store contractual commitment with 200 optional (10-K) is the largest disclosed programme; timing has slipped to early 2028 and depends on a redesigned unit (Q3 call).
Increased tariff expense partly offset gross-profit gains in fiscal 2026 (10-Q); the 10-K flags further tariffs as a cost risk Symbotic may not be able to offset.
LiDAR units fell from about $5,000 four years ago to under $500 and will be on all bots within about two years; the chips Symbotic needs are 'plenty available' (Q1 and Q3 calls).
Walmart at 90.5% of revenue (10-Q), an open material weakness (10-Q) and a partly surviving class action (10-Q) keep the multiple compressed: market value -48.7% over twelve months (stockanalysis.com).
Symbotic bought Fox Robotics, Box Robotics and ARMS Innovations within fiscal 2026 (calls; Automated Warehouse) and says it will stay acquisitive (Q3 call); integration cost and undisclosed prices add execution risk.
Ecosystem & competitor graph
Suppliers feed the company; customers pull from it. Line thickness shows the strength of each tie (supply-chain dependency, customer earnings contribution). Hover to isolate a tie.
Symbotic manufactures with third-party contract manufacturers and buys lifts, robots, conveyors and racking from a wide range of vendors (10-K).
Fast-charge battery supplier and strategic investment; batteries planned for all new bots (Q2 call); roughly $19M unrealised gain in Q3 FY2026 (Q3 call).
Storage structure is steel; price increases are mostly passed on to customers (10-K); tariffs partly absorbed (10-Q).
camera and embedded-compute vendors (unnamed) Eight cameras per bot, LiDAR rolling out at under $500 a unit; chips are commodity-grade and plentiful (Q1 and Q3 calls).
90.5% of Q3 FY2026 revenue (10-Q); agreements covering all 42 U.S. regional DCs, the 400-store micro-fulfilment programme, and the Oct 29, 2026 commitment of about $6B (10-Q; 10-K; 8-K); about 12.6% shareholder (13D/A).
35% Symbotic / 65% SoftBank venture; $11.6B of backlog (10-Q); Atlanta site live, Lathrop pending (Q3 call).
Private wholesaler controlled by Symbotic's founder; customer at Exol's Lathrop, California site (Q3 call) and a long-standing system customer (Wharton Magazine).
Named as a Symbotic client alongside Walmart (Wharton Magazine, May 2026).
Private distributor serving 47 U.S. markets and Canada; signed a second site in Q3 FY2026 (Q3 call).
Cooperative wholesaler; one system added to backlog in Q2 FY2026, built one system at a time (Q2 call).
Medical-supply distributor whose backlog was added in Q4 FY2025 (Q4 FY2025 earnings call).
Norwegian cube-storage goods-to-person system sold through integrators; the most widely installed modular alternative for e-commerce and retail each-picking.
Grocery-specific robotic fulfilment grid licensed to grocers (Kroger in the U.S.); competes for the online-grocery and micro-fulfilment budgets Symbotic targets with SymMicro.
Large integrator of shuttle, conveyor and robotic systems for distribution centres; the incumbent choice for many retailers building new DCs.
Conveyor, sortation and robotic integration for retail and parcel DCs; competes on integrator relationships and service footprint.
Japanese material-handling leader in automated storage and retrieval systems; strong in Asia and with automotive and retail customers.
Private French maker of the Skypod climbing-robot storage system; expanding in North America with retail and grocery customers.
Private, SoftBank-owned robotic picking and sortation vendor; a sibling in the SoftBank portfolio rather than a direct partner of Symbotic.
Private autonomous mobile robot fleets for piece-picking, sold as robots-as-a-service; an incremental alternative to full-building automation.
In-house robotics at the largest warehouse operator; sets the benchmark for automation economics and competes for talent, not for Symbotic's customers.